ATP  Year end championships and 2018 outlook.

The year-end championships were a bit anticlimactic, with Nadal bowing out in the round robin due to injury, Wawrinka, Nishikori, Djokovic and Murray all absent, and Federer playing a little bit too relaxed, with the off season in sight.  David Goffin defeated the damaged Nadal, lost badly to Grigor Dimitrov, and then beat Federer in the semifinals after losing the first set 6-2.  As noted, Fed looked a little bit too relaxed as he started missing forehands and seemingly finding himself unable to give that extra push to win that match.  This year was a long and grueling one for Roger, though Goffin deserves a lot of credit for staying the course.  In the final Dimitrov again defeated Goffin, though the match was close.  Kudos to Dimitrov, who played some great tennis late in the year, and who showed off his many talents and physical skills on his way to the title.

Year end Awards:

Player of the year, Rafa Nadal.  Nadal had a great year, with 2 major titles, including his record 10^th at the French Open.  I actually think Federer had a better year, but they had to give some awards to someone else, as illustrated below.

Comeback player of the year, Roger Federer.  Roger missed the second half of 2016, then came back to win 2 majors, including a record 8^th Wimbledon, and 3 masters 1000 events.  He also beat Nadal in several big matches, including the final of the Aussie Open.  An amazing year.

Sportsmanship Award, Roger Federer.  This was the 13^th time Roger has won this award.  When he retires the award should be renamed the Edberg/Federer sportsmanship award.

Fan favorite, Roger Federer.  For the 15^th straight year.  Again, again.

Most improved player, Denis Shapovalov.  Denis moved into the top 100 from far down in the ranks, and beat Nadal in a third set tiebreaker in Montreal.  This award could have gone to Sasha Zverev, who won two masters 1000 events.

ATP star of tomorrow, Denis Shapovalov.  No controversy on this one, though I believe Denis will see a bit of a sophomore slump as top players figure out his vulnerabilities and more of the best players are playing.

Humanitarian award, Horia Tecau of Romania.

2018 outlook:

With Murray, Djokovic, Nishikori and Wawrinka coming back, and with Nadal presumably healthy, the younger guns in the top 10 (Zverev, Dimitrov) will have a hard time holding onto their rankings.  Dimitrov should fare better, as his deep runs in many tournaments late in 2017 helped him learn to deal with high pressure situations, which has been a challenge for him in the past.  The win at the year end championships should give him a lot of confidence, and we should expect some great matches between him and the traditional “big 4” next year.  Roger Federer should also have quite a challenge holding his ranking, as he now has so many ranking points to defend.  With Roger, though, it’s about time we gave up making predictions.   Players deserving a closer look include del Potro, who showed some top level 5 play late in 2017, and Nick Kyrgios, whose only weakness is between the ears.  Shapovalov and Tiafoe are youngsters worth keeping an eye on.  I predict relatively tough years for the fading Ferrer and Berdych, and for Wawrinka as well.  Let’s hope all of the top players stay healthy!

WTA year end and 2018 outlook

The WTA ended its year with a win by Caroline Wozniaki over Venus Williams.  This was a resurgent year for Wozniaki, as a result, in my opinion, of her decision to hit a flatter forehand inside out more often.  In the past her forehand was a predictable topspin crosscourt shot that players could prepare for and tee off on.  Now she is penetrating the court better, and with her awesome court coverage and fitness, she is back near the very top of the tour.  Look for continued success for her in 2018.

The WTA awards were as follows:

Player of the year:  Garbine Muguruza, Wimbledon champ.  Garbine has the talent to dominate the game, but does she have the psyche for it?  We’ll see.

Most improved: Jelena Ostapenko, French Open champ.  The upstart French Open titlist backed up her success pretty well, but look for her to struggle a bit in 2018 as more top players figure out how to play her.

Comeback Player of the Year:  Sloane Stevens.  After months away following surgery, she powered her way to the US Open title with some marvelous play.  She remains a bit of an enigma, however.  Witness her Fed Cup finals performances, where she was up breaks of serve in third sets of two matches and lost them both.  Like Muguruza, her mental approach will determine her success. 

Newcomer of the year:  Cici Bellis.  Kind of an unusual choice, given that she beat Dominika Cibulkova in the 2014 US Open.  If she continues to improve she will further buttress the already strong cohort of female players from the US.

Aces Award:  Angelique Kerber.  This is basically a sportsmanship award, though it purports to reward off court activities.  A tough year this year for Angie.  I predict she will continue to lose her grip on the top of the game.

2018:  Next year will see the return of Serena Willliams and Victoria Azarenka, both of whom took a break to become mothers.  Serena is not getting any younger, so I predict she will win a lot of matches but not retake the number one spot.  Her goal should be try to peak for majors, as Roger Federer on the men’s side does so well.  Azarenka is still pretty young, and if personal issues don’t interfere with her training and play, she could dash the title ambitions of many of her peers next year.

           

Players to keep an eye on include Karolina Pliskova, who still has a lot of room for improvement in her game, and Madison Keys, the hardest hitter on the women’s tour.  Of course there are many young guns as well.  Too many to list (like Osaka, Konjuh etc.).

                                      

Overall the tour should be exciting, unpredictable, and filled with dramatic matches.

Federer wins in Shanghai

With an awesome display of racquet control and accurate serving, Roger Federer dominated Rafa Nadal to win the title in Shanghai.   As noted before in this blog, Federer occasionally produces tennis that simply goes beyond great play into a realm that most players don’t even think about entering, thereby to produce matches for the ages.  Such was the case in this match, where Nadal, who has been virtually unbeatable since Cincinnati in the middle of the summer, was totally outplayed (to get a feel for the level of Roger’s hand-eye skills, take a look at the backhand he hit to break Nadal in the first game of the match).  Federer’s new racquet has led to a better second serve and a backhand that anyone, even Stan Wawrinka, would envy.   The racquet has allowed Federer’s mind boggling talents to manifest themselves more consistently, and as a result, even Nadal, himself an other-worldly player, cannot cope with them. 

Perhaps lost in this amazing final was the overall high level of play in this tournament.   Commentators often note that at this time of year players can be tired and prone to playing less than their best tennis.  That was not the case here, where Nadal, Federer, Dimitrov, del Potro and Cilic all played marvelous tennis.  Matches to look back at include the Dimitrov encounter with Nadal (one of the year’s best), del Potro’s matches with Sasha Zverev and Federer, and Cilic’ straight set loss to Nadal.  In my opinion the play overall in this tournament was the best of all the Masters 1000 events this year.

Another take home message was, once again, the weather conditions.  Early in the week the weather was dangerously hot and humid.   Please, ATP, add a weather break after the second set for the men, as is done for the women when the weather is this brutal!

Shanghai happenings

The Shanghai Rolex Masters is the only 1000 event in Asia, and all of the active “big guns” are there.  Here are some highlight events.

1)  The weather.  The weather at the start of the tournament was brutal, with temperatures in the 90’s and humidity in the mid 80’s.  These conditions forced Jack Sock to retire from his match, and led to a 6-0 final set loss by Denis Shapovalov in his match with Victor Troicki.  As pointed out on this blog before, the planet is getting warmer, and the risk of heat stroke, a potentially fatal decompensation that results from excessive heat exposure, is increasing.  I’ve suggested before that the men, like the women, should be given a 10 minute break after the second set if conditions are so difficult.  Let’s hope the ATP is considering it.

2)  Kyrgios flops.  Nick Kyrgios got the worst of an errant line call in his match with Steve Johnson, and responded with unsportsmanlike conduct and verbal abuse of a spectator, after which he walked off the court at the end of the first set.  If Kyrgios can’t handle the pressure of high level competition better that that, he will always be a journeyman player.  Only grownups reach the top of the tour.

3)  Nadal looks awesome.  Rafa Nadal has dominated his opponents throughout the Asian tour, and his performance this far in Shanghai has been truly awesome.  He is doing everything well, and has been in total command of his matches.  Looks unbeatable.

4)  Federer is well, Federer.  Roger Federer decided to play in this tournament, and has elected to travel to the venue on the subway system.  He waits in line to buy his subway tickets like everyone else.  Other passengers have enjoyed chatting with him while he’s on his way to work, and he seems as affable as ever while socializing with them.  There will never be another one like Roger!

Stephens dominates Keys

Sloane Stephens dominated Madison Keys, 6-3, 6-0 to win the US Open.  Stephens presented three major problems that Keys was unable to negotiate.  First was her spectacular movement, with regard to both speed and footwork.  Stephens’ blazing speed allowed her extend rallies even after scorching ground strokes from Keys, and her footwork allowed her to make telling shots even when rushed.  Second, Stephens hits a heavy ball, particularly on the forehand side, and Keys had a difficult time controlling the ball sufficiently to keep it in play.  Third, Stephens did not overplay.  She hit some very penetrating shots, but those shots were high percentage plays.  In many cases, Stephens won points simply because Keys, who plays a higher risk game, missed first.

Another problem for Keys in this match, and all of her matches, is that her flat, hard shots are not well suited to dealing with short balls.  One must hit short balls up to get them over the net, and Keys hits so hard and flat that she has trouble keeping those shots in the court.

From the perspective of the TV viewer, the only problem watching this masterful performance by Stephens came from the commentary by Chris Evert.  Leaving aside her irritatingly poor grammar, her focus on the psychological states of the players, rather than the specifics on how the points developed and were decided, was just plain tiresome.  Any statements about what a player is thinking and feeling must necessarily be based on speculation, and as such, they are not terribly informative.  Great players like Evert should be able to provide more trenchant insights into the way points evolve, the kinds of skills that shots pose for the opposing player, etc. 

Of interest now is where these two grand slam ingénues will go from here.  Will they establish a level of dominance in the sport, or fade into the background?  My hope is that they will continue to excel and produce great rivalries with the other current greats like the new number one, Muguruza, Pliskova, and the convalescent Kvitova.  Both Keys and Stephens have tremendous talent, so let’s hope they stay healthy and motivated. 

Men’s semifinals:  These went as predicted here, with Anderson and Nadal winning.  A word of advice to tennis balls:  Don’t sit up after a slice, three feet behind the service line, when Nadal is there, poised to hit a forehand.  If you do that you will get spanked!!