Tennis Happenings

The tennis schedule is a bit light right after the US Open, but here are some interesting recent events:

Del Potro looking good.   Juan Martin del Potro defeated Andy Murray in a 5-set Davis Cup match.  This match was important to both players, so a victory over Murray in a 5-setter indicates that del Potro is back in force.  Let’s hope he stays healthy.

Raonic loses, Zverev wins in St. Petersburg.  Milos Raonic, the defending champion, was ousted from the St. Petersburg Open by Mikhail Youzhny, a good player who has not played his best tennis for quite some time.  The significance of this loss was the way Raonic lost.  He won the first set and got up 5-1 in the second set tiebreaker.  With two match points on his own serve, he failed to close it out, and lost the third set.  In addition to being unable to win key points on his own serve in the second set, Raonic was broken 4 times in the match.

Raonic, who has one of the biggest serves in tennis, has been tinkering with his first serve this year.  He has added variety by altering the spins and speeds.  The rationale for this effort is that variety will be more effective because players won’t know what’s coming.  However, the disadvantage of this approach is that if the player guesses right on a slower first serve, he can hit a better return.

This result tells me that Raonic has tinkered with his serve too much.  Considering his awesome stats on holding serve last year, I’d say that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.  He should go back to the power ball more in my opinion. 

The tournament was won by Alexander Zverev, the teen star.  He was able to beat Berdych and Wawrinka on his way to the title.  This was a fabulous performance by Zverev, who didn’t make the same mistakes with Wawrinka that he did with Nadal at Indian Wells, where he missed an easy volley on match point and subsequently fell apart.  Look for Zverev to become a major force very soon.

Lucas Pouille wins in Metz.  Pouille has really announced himself this year with several big wins, including a victory over Nadal at the US Open.  In this final he downed Dominic Thiem, one of the most successful players on the tour this year.  This was a very well played match, and Pouille impressed with his power, quickness and variety.  The French have a new star here. 

On the women’s side…

Wozniaki wins.  Sporting a very attractive green outfit, Caroline Wozniaki marched through a very tough draw to win the Toray Pan Pacific Open.  After defeating Bencic, Suarez-Navarro and Radwanska, she downed the hard hitting teen Naomi Osaka in the final.  Wozniaki has always covered the court unbelievably well and simply never gets tired.  She seems to have added some sting to her forehand, and is hitting it to the ad side of her opponent’s court more often than in the past.  She has been ranked #1 in the past, so look out for her.

          Tennis pundits are very high on Osaka, who really clubs the ball.  So far her weakness has been similar to that of Madison Keys: if opponents keep the ball in play, she is first to make the error.  Hard hitters need to learn to tame their games and construct points.  Osaka is very young and has plenty of opportunity to harness her power and round out her game.  Time will tell if she is able to do it.  

US Open Postscript

            We learned a few new things from this interesting tournament as follows:

1) The big 4 is no more.  Stan Wawrinka has now won his third major, beating Djokovic in two of the finals.  Federer has not won a major in several years, though he has contested for titles.  Nadal did not make the quarterfinals of any major this year.  Cilic won the US Open in 2014 and beat Murray in the final of a Masters 1000 event in Cincinnati this summer.  All of these facts add up to one thing: the era of the big 4 is over.  That’s not such a bad thing for tennis, and it simply acknowledges that in sports, time flies.  Upcoming tournaments will be a bit more suspenseful, which is good.

2) Top players are vulnerable.  Both Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic have dominated the women’s and men’s tours for quite some time, but both now show clear signs of vulnerability.  That will encourage their opponents and make their matches even tougher down the road.

3) Kerber is the real deal.  Now that Angie has won two majors and earned the number one ranking, we have to consider her, like Stan Wawrinka, to be a legitimate superstar.

4) Pliskova arrives, Wozniaki returns.  Karolina Pliskova added some mental toughness to her power game and made her statement as a serious threat to win majors.  Caroline Wozniaki, coming off injury, knocked off Madison Keys and Svetlana Kuznetsova, and bumped her ranking by 35 points.  Expect it to go up further.

5) WEATHER was the real winner in several matches.  The extremely warm and humid weather was a major factor in this tournament.  As pointed out in a previous post, climate change has arrived and must be reckoned with.  In matches I saw, the following players were severely affected by the weather:

Jared Donaldson

David Goffin*

Milos Raonic*

Karolina Pliskova

Novak Djokovic

* Players who probably lost matches because of weather effects

In my opinion, professional tennis must recognize that warmer oceans mean more evaporation, and warmer air means that the atmosphere can sustain higher levels of humidity before rains begin.  Thus, the oppressively heavy weather at the US Open.  Human activity has changed the world, and I believe the tennis tour must respond with three changes:

1) Invoke the heat rule in men’s tennis to allow a 10 minute break after two sets if the temperature/humidity index exceeds set limits.

2) MOVE THE US OPEN TO A LATER DATE IN SEPTEMBER.  It was just too hot this year!

3) Encourage directors of summer tournaments to raise awareness among fans of the risks of extreme heat, and to make sure facilities,  resources and trained personnel are available to fans who suffer from heat effects. 

US Open Men’s Final

Wawrinka Wins!

            I did not pick Stan Wawrinka to go far in this tournament because of his dodgy play this year.  It’s a funny thing, though, how fate can affect these big tournaments.  Stan was in trouble early in the Open, with a match point against him in the third round against Daniel Evans of Great Britain.  After surviving that, he faced a tough one against Kei Nishikori in the semis, but Nishikori had done Stan the favor of eliminating Andy Murray and exhausting himself in the process.  Nishikori started strong against Stan, but the previous match and heavy weather soon did him in.

            In the final Stan started slowly, but when serving at 2-5 down in the first set, he hit a couple of blistering winners to keep from going down two breaks.  He lost the set, but that eighth game seemed to wake him up.  Djokovic looked very sharp early on, but once Wawrinka got going Novak became a bit more uncertain with his play.  His uncertainty manifested as unforced errors off both sides and some tentative hitting.  The best example of the latter problem was at 0-3, 0-15 in the third set.  Djokovic got himself into a dominating position and had two fairly easy overheads.  He hit them tentatively, though, and Wawrinka was able to lob them back and eventually steal the point.  Novak also threw in a second serve at under 80 mph during the match.  The problems with Djokovic’ play have been apparent for several weeks.  How Novak’s game has changed is illustrated by a comment made by Patrick McEnroe during the match - that long rallies favored Wawrinka!  That is not a statement we would have heard 12 months ago, when Djokovic was playing the best baseline tennis I’ve ever seen.  As I’ve pointed out in a previous post, it is hard to withstand the demands of maintaining the number one ranking for periods of more than about 3 years.  Although he is still number one, of course, Novak is perhaps becoming weary of that pressure. 

            Some great points were played in this match.  My favorite was with Wawrinka serving, down 0-2 in points in the first set tiebreaker.  

            Although he lost the match, Djokovic demonstrated his mind-bloggling quickness and agility in this point and in many others throughout the match. 

            Grats to Stan Wawrinka for once again producing his best tennis when it matters most!

US Open Women’s Final

This final was contested by two players who are both having the best years of their careers.  Both Angie Kerber and Karolina Pliskova had beaten Serena Williams on big stages.  Kerber was in her third grand slam final of the year shortly after earning a silver medal at the Olympics.  Pliskova was coming off her first premier event title and victories over several top 10 players.

Kerber started out the way she finished off Caroline Wozniaki – with error free tennis and a penetrating forehand.  Pliskova stumbled in the opening service game of the match and was playing catchup after that.  She finally yielded a second break to lose the first set.

In the second set Kerber’s game did not exactly return to earth, but it was in a lower orbit.  Pliskova started hitting harder, in recognition of the fact that rally balls were not going to earn her a victory.  Pliskova finally broke through and served out the second set.  In the third set those trends continued, and Pliskova got up a break.  All she had to do then was hold serve to win the title, and she has one of the best serves in tennis.

Unfortunately, a combination of nerves and heavy weather conditions then got to Pliskova.  She started missing first serves and groundies, and started doubling over with fatigue between points.  Kerber tolerated the conditions better and used her experience to break back, then break again for the title.

This was a fantastic match for both players.  Not only was it very well played, but it certainly secured player of the year honors for Kerber.  As for Pliskova, she made a big statement by getting to this final and competing so well.  Her task now is to do what Milos Raonic does so well on the men’s side – make sure she wins her early rounds and gives herself a chance late in majors.  If she does that she will certainly win one.  

Major Upsets at a Major

There were two major upsets at the US Open in the quarterfinals (men) and semis (women)

In the men’s quarters, Kei Nishikori came from behind to beat Andy Murray, whose play over the previous several weeks had been nothing less than awesome.  This was the best match in the tournament on the men’s side thus far.  In the first set it appeared that Murray would continue his amazing dominance, as Murray won that set 6-1.  But then, much to his credit, Nishikori changed his approach.

Kei realized that he couldn’t play his usual great game and beat Murray, so he made several changes.  First, he red-lined his game by hitting out on his forehand, with blistering shots at sharp angles.  Those low percentage shots went in for winners quite often.  He also started getting his first serve in play far more often.  The reality is that a 95 mph serve is harder to return when it is a first serve than when it is the second serve, because the first serve is not as predictable with regard to spin, velocity, placement etc.  This strategy gave Nishikori more tactical advantages in the baseline exchanges.  In addition to these changes, Nishikori became far less predictable off the ground: he started coming into the net more often and hitting more drop shots. 

Taken together, these changes threw Murray off and brought his game down to a manageable level.  Andy began making more unforced errors, and was caught leaning the wrong way more often in rallies.  In the end Nishikori prevailed in 5 sets for a remarkable win.  Nishikori now must beat Stan Wawrinka and probably Djokovic to win the title.  That should be easy, haha!

In the women’s semis Karolina Pliskova stunned Serena Williams in straight sets, forestalling Williams’ chances of winning her 23d major and knocking her out of the number one ranking.  I thought this was a good matchup for Serena, who hits as hard as Pliskova but who moves much better.  However, Pliskova maintained her composure and threw Serena off by mixing in some looping topspin and slice forehands along with her usual flat rifle-shot strokes.  Pliskova also covered the court a bit better than I expected and returned serve very well.   She also lived with quite a few double faults that resulted from her understanding that weak second serves would not pass muster against Serena.  

On July 8, 2016, I posted I list of “tennis no-nos", and one of them was:  “don’t double fault in tiebreakers.”  Serena made this mistake on match point and was thus defeated, 6-2, 7-6.  Kerber will become number one in the world on Monday in contradiction to Serena’s waving of her index finger as she left the court. 

Serena’s coach explained the defeat as due to a leg injury.  The shoulder injury that made the news prior to the tournament, but that never manifested itself, was forgotten.  The coach didn’t mention Serena’s acute cholecystitis, osteogenesis imperfecta or crohn’s disease (right!).  In contradiction to the coach's claim that Serena was clearly hampered in her warmup, commentators who watched the warmup saw no problems with Williams' fitness.  Serena didn’t make any excuses herself for this loss, but are we to believe that she didn’t know about and approve the excuses her coach made? 

Karolina Pliskova should not take these excuses to heart.  She has played a great tournament, with victories over both Williams sisters in consecutive matches on one of the biggest stages in tennis, and with everyone in the stands supporting her opponents.  Pliskova should respond to these “qualifiers” from the Williams camp by invoking the title of one of George Gershwin’s greatest hits:  “no, no, You Can’t Take That Away From Me”!