Wimbledon Outlook

This is a year when predictions for the Wimbledon championships are particularly hard to make. 

On the men’s side, Andy Murray’s play has been spotty all year, and his first round loss at the Aegon championships to a qualifier can hardly allay concerns about his chances.  He’s had great success at Wimbledon and the crowd will be behind him, but performance right now is all that counts in sports.  Similarly, Novak Djokovic has been very inconsistent for several months.  Roger Federer started the grass season a little roughly after a 10-week layoff, but won his 9^th Halle tournament very impressively with a win over Sasha Zverev.  Federer has been the best in the world off of clay this year, but he will turn 36 shortly.  Can a man that age best a field of young guns and veteran greats in seven 5-set matches?  We’ll have to see.   Nadal’s play on clay this year has been awesome, and he has won Wimbledon before.  Despite his claims of difficulty on grass, I believe he is one of the real favorites.

Long shots for this tournament include Milos Raonic, who has made the final in the past, but who has not elevated his play to his previously best level since coming back from injury.  Grigor Dimitrov has also had a great year and has a good game for grass.  Dominic Thiem is the only guy to handle Nadal on clay this year, beating Nadal in the Italian Open final, but clay is not grass.  Sasha Zverev’s consistently high performance (he made the final two years in a row in Halle) bode very well for him in the long term, though he is not likely to take the Wimbledon title this year.  Nobody wants to play him, that’s for sure.  The Australians: Nick Kyrgios, Thanasi Kokkinakis and Bernie Tomic, might all be categorized as dangerous floaters right now.

My pick: Nadal

The women’s side is also wide open.  The most consistent players this year have been Simona Halep and Elina Svitolina, neither of whom has ever won a major.  Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova will not be playing.  Victoria Azarenka will be back but has had a very long layoff.  Kerber and Muguruza have been inconsistent.  Former finalist Bouchard is nowhere to be seen.  Petra Kvitova is back from a dreadful injury to her left hand (she’s a lefty).  She won in the Birmingham warmup and has been hitting the ball quite well.  She has a great game for grass and has won the tournament twice.  If she minimizes her lapses of play during matches, Karolina Pliskova could take the title.  She will get a lot of free points on serve.  Jelena Ostapenko has continued her strong play after winning the French Open.  I don’t think she will win this tournament, but it is important for her to do well enough to solidify her position near the very top of the game.  Caroline Wozniaki has been playing great tennis but has never won a major.  Johanna Konta will be on her home court at Wimbledon, but her play has faltered somewhat over the past few weeks.

My pick:  This is a tough one!!  Karolina Pliskova

French Open Take Home Messages

So what did the French Open tell us about the status of players on the women’s and men’s tours?

The women.  In a field depleted by the absence of Serena Williams, Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova, the upstart and unseeded Jelena Ostapenko powered her way to the title.  She defeated Simona Halep who, though undoubtedly frustrated by the loss, should be encouraged by her performance here.  Down 1-5 in the second set of her quarterfinal with Elina Svitolina, Halep maintained her poise and concentration, and came back to win that match.  That match was probably the best Halep ever played because of the resolve she showed, and could bode well for her as the year progresses.  Will Ostapenko parlay this victory into a consolidated position at the top of the game?  The jury is still out on that one.  Her serve is a bit of a liability, and it’s not clear how consistently she will be able to drive winners on faster surfaces.  She will also face some formidable opponents who, as mentioned above, were not able to play in this tournament.

Other notable events in this tournament were the return of Petra Kvitova, which is great for the tour and a tribute to modern medical technology, and the early round decimation of Eugenie Bouchard by Anastasija Sevastova.  Bouchard continues to struggle with her game but remains in the spotlight by publicly excoriating Maria Sharapova.  More on that in another post.

The men.  Nadal looked like the Nadal of a few years ago as he destroyed the field to win his 10^th title.  After totally dominating Wawrinka in the finals, we club players are all trying to find out what Rafa eats for breakfast.   His movement, shot-making, and ability to win points from 15 feet or more behind the baseline were all truly amazing.  When Roger Federer, the best player in the world this year prior to the clay court season, returns, matches between the two of them will be compelling to watch.

Other notable events include the loss by Novak Djokovic to Dominic Thiemin the quarters.  By itself such a loss is no huge story.  After all, Thiem is a phenomenal clay court player, the only player to beat Nadal in this clay court season.  But the way Novak lost is news.  He dropped the third set 0-6 to Thiem, and afterward said that the match was really decided in the first set.  Is this the same man who defeated Nadal in an Australian Open final after a 5¾ - hour marathon?  Novak’s inability of late to maintain his focus and intensity remains a matter of concern for him.  Murray’s loss in this tournament was not so ominous.  After a very spotty clay court season Andy played a great tournament here.  He lost to a very sharp and powerful Wawrinka, which can happen to anyone.   It’s worth watching Murray closely in the grass court swing to see if his “slump” is over.

A final thought:  The French is still affected by the absence of Hawkeye, with many “check the mark” calls turning out to be errant.  It’s time to put Hawkeye on Lenglen and Chatrier so that the big matches at the end of the tournament are not decided by line calling errors.

The French Open has now started, and here are some notable results:

The women:  Petra Kvitova played!  It’s great to see her back after the dreadful hand injury sustained earlier this year.  She lost in the second round to Mattek-Sands, and her movement around the court was a bit sluggish.  Her hitting looked normal for her, however, which indicates that the hand problem is a thing of the forgettable past.

Early exits by Kerber and Konta have opened up the draw.  Kerber’s play has been inconsistent of late, but Konta’s loss is a big surprise.   Favorites left in the draw are:

1) Svetlana Kuznetsova:  A former champ playing very well.  Look out for her.

2) Elina Svitolina:  She has been playing the best tennis on the tour over the past several weeks.  She could have a major breakthrough here.

3) Simona Halep:  She has also been playing very well.  Lost to Svitolina in the Italian Open final.  A veteran of the big stage.

4) Karolina Pliskova.  Big weapons, very determined.  Clay favors power players who move relatively poorly, as is the case with her. 

They have a chance:  Madison Keys, Agnieska Radwanska and maybe Venus Williams??  Not Venus’ best surface, but she’s playing well and relaxed in the twilight of her career.

The men:  The only real surprise was the early loss by Alexander Zverev, who won his first Masters 1000 event the previous week by beating Djokovic in the final of the Italian Open.  He perhaps had a bit of a letdown after that, but he also had a tough early round opponent in Fernando Verdasco.

The other top men are looking very strong – Nadal, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Nishikori, Thiem.  Hard to know what to expect from Murray and Djokovic, who have been very inconsistent over the past few weeks.  Nadal has a great chance to win number 10 here.  Thiem is the best clay player after Nadal, and must be considered a real threat.

Other players looking good include Dimitrov, Goffin and Nick Kyrgios, who appears, at least for now, to be concentrating on playing well rather than on theatrics and unsportsmanlike conduct.  He should be interesting to watch.