US Open Overview

The draw is now out for the US open.  Here are some noteworthy findings:

The women:

Favorites

1) Serena Williams

2) Angelique Kerber

3) Garbine Muguruza

4) Aggie Radwanska

Serena is the obvious favorite, despite an apparent shoulder problem that kept her out of the Cincinnati tournament.  Don’t expect her shoulder to hamper her in this tournament.  She has a tricky first round match with Ekaterina Makarova, a seasoned veteran who knows how to play in big tournaments and who defeated Williams in the Australian Open in 2012.  If she gets through that one, Serena probably face Halep in the quarterfinals.  Halep is playing good tennis right now and also claims some significant wins over Serena in the past.  Angie Kerber, the #2 seed, has a bit of an easier draw.  If all goes according to script, she would play Muguruza in the semis, but has a fairly smooth ride before that.   Muguruza obviously has the ability to go all the way, though she sometimes appears a bit too comfortable with losses.  She has Madison Keys in her quarter, so that could be a tough match and a good match.  I pick Radwanska above Halep because Halep is in Serena’s quarter.

They have a chance:

1) Simona Halep

2) Madison Keys

3) Petra Kvitova

4) Karolina Pliskova

Halep is a great player and is playing quite well this summer.  She probably would have to beat Serena Williams to go all the way, but she’s done it before.  Madison Keys has an awesome power game that has really rounded into form this year.  She still has a way to go to reach her full potential, but is a very dangerous player.  Both Kvitova and Pliskova are long shots but have a chance.  The enigmatic Kvitova, who looked awesome in her two Wimbledon wins, is quite erratic and frankly, disappointing.  Pliskova has a great serve that gets her a lot of free points, and powerful groundies as well.  She is not a great mover and has succumbed to pressure in the past, but her win over Kerber in Cincinnati indicates that she might be putting it all together. 

Players to keep an eye on:

1) Laura Robson, Radwanska’s quarter, top half.  Has she finally overcome her injuries?

2) Eugenie Bouchard, Radwanska’s quarter, top half.  Has she finally exorcised her demons?  A great talent but…

3) Venus Williams, Radwanska’s quarter.  She is seeded 6^th.  It will be interesting to see what kind of tennis she can produce at this late stage of her career.

4) Svetlana Kuznetsova, Muguruza’s quarter, bottom half.  She’s won a couple of slams and has had a pretty good year.  She could be a spoiler.

5) Monica Puig, Muguruza’s quarter.  She won Olympic gold.  Is that a springboard to greatness for her?

6) Ceci Bellis, Kerber’s quarter, bottom half.  Haven’t heard much from the young phenom in awhile.  Let’s see where she’s at.

7) Elina Svitolina, Kerber’s quarter.  Beat Serena in the Olympics and almost won the New Haven warmup, though she tweaked her right ankle in the final.  Looking good these days with Justine Henin’s tutelage. 

Interesting first round matches:

1) Gavrilova vs Safarova, top half.  The feisty Gavrilova plays Safarova, a terrific player when healthy and match tough.  Could be a good one.

2) Giorgi vs Stosur, top half.  It’s all or nothing at all with Camila Giorgi, who faces a former champ.  Will Giorgi’s dad be giving her signals from the player’s box?

3) Townsend vs Wozniaki,  Muguruza’s quarter.  Townsend can really hit the ball and moves a lot better than you would think from her physical appearance.  Wozniaki, a former world #1, is really vulnerable these days.  Could be interesting.

4) Ostapenko vs Kvitova, Kerber’s quarter.  Ostapenko is very talented a motivated.  If Kvitova doesn’t show up this could be a big upset.

 Can’t help missing Maria Sharapova just a little!

US Open Overview

The draw is now out for the US open.  Here are some noteworthy findings:

The men:

Favorites

1) Andy Murray

2) Novak Djokovic

3) Milos Raonic

4) Marin Cilic

At the moment I’d put Andy Murray just a little bit ahead of Novak as the favorite for this tournament.  Not only is he playing the best tennis in the world right now, but the only man to beat him recently, Marin Cilic, must beat Djokovic to get to Andy.  Djokovic, still the best player in the world, has had some ups and downs recently, but overall he must be high on the list of favorites.  Raonic has been dominated by Murray lately, but he’s always learning, always reaches the late rounds of tournaments, and is not in Murray’s half of the draw.  He’s had little success against Djokovic either, though, so his chances are so-so if Novak faces and beats Marin Cilic.  Cilic plays really well at this time of year, he beat Murray in Cincinnati, and he’s won this tournament before.  He’ll have to get past Novak and probably Raonic to reach the final.

They have a chance:

1) Stan Wawrinka

2) Rafael Nadal

3) Kei Nishikori

2) Dominic Thiem

4) Gael Monfils

5) Nick Kyrgios

Stan Wawrinka, while up and down psychologically, is still a 2-time slam winner and a very powerful player.  I’m not yet ready to dismiss Nadal, he’s such a great player.  He hasn’t looked all that good lately, though.  Kei Nishikori has made the final before, and is a truly great player.  Will he hold up physically is the question.  Dominic Thiem had a fabulous early part of 2016 but has flagged a bit lately.  He’s a real professional with a world of talent, however, so he has a chance.  Gael Monfils has the ability to win but hasn’t played his top tennis for seven straight matches at any previous time in his career.  He’s a much more serious player than he used to be, so I give him a shot.  Kyrgios is a long shot but has wonderful tools.  He’s gotten a bit more serious about his tennis over the past several months, so who knows?  Another player who’s gotten more serious is Kyrgios’ countryman, Bernie Tomic.  Those two might face off in the third round, which would be interesting.

Players to keep an eye on:

1) David Goffin          Murray’s half

2) Stevie Johnson                  Murray’s half

3) Alexander Zverev             Murray’s half

4) Grigor Dimitrov                Murray’s half

5) John Isner                         Djokovic’s half

6) Jack Sock                           Djokovic’s half

Interesting first round matches:

1) Wawrinka vs. Verdasco.  If Verdasco plays his best, could be a tough one for Stan.

2) Nadal vs Istomin.  Nadal should win comfortably, but this will be a chance to check out how he’s playing.

3) Dustin Brown vs. Milos Raonic.  Expect Raonic to win, but Brown is a ton of fun to watch!

4) Jack Sock Vs. Taylor Fritz.  Two terrific young Americans going at it.

Cincinnati Tennis

Notable events at the Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati are as follows:

The men

Zverev shows a temper. 

Alexander Zverev refused to shake the umpire’s had after he lost to Sugita in an early round.  Zverev has shown some irascibility in other matches.  He is still young, but keeping cool under pressure is an important aspect of success on the tour.  He should be aware of that.

Dimitrov showing some signs. 

Grigor Dimitrov had several good wins in this tournament, beating Feliciano Lopez, Stan Wawrinka, and Steve Johnson.  As pointed out in previous posts (He’s no Fed, baby!) Dimitrov has been playing aimless tennis, with serves placed passively into the box and groundies that appear to be simple rally balls.  That approach caused him to lose a lot of matches this year, but in this tournament he served to the extremes of the box and hit his groundies, particularly his forehand, with much more authority.  He lost to the eventual winner, Marin Cilic, but Dimitrov fans can feel encouraged after this week.

Steve Johnson is U.S. number one. 

Stevie Johnson continues to improve against top players.  He beat Tsonga in this tournament and became the number one ranked American player.  He’s got a big serve and forehand.  We’ll see how far those assets can take him.

Murray dominates Raonic again. 

Ever since the Australian Open, where Raonic looked as if he was going to beat Murray, but then succumbed to health problems, Murray has dominated this matchup.  Murray has been playing the best tennis in the world over the last several weeks, and thus his win is no surprise.  If you want to see why Jimmy Arias called Raonic the third best player in the world right now, and why so many people predict Raonic will win a slam, take a look at the point he played against Murray in their first set, with Murray serving at 3-2, 30-30. 

Nadal does not look good.

Rafa lost to Borna Coric in this tournament and looked bad while doing it.  He cited fatigue in his post match interview, but let’s be frank:  it’s not possible to effectively play Rafa’s physical style year after year.  Rafa is a big guy, and moving his frame around the court the way he has in the past seems very hard now.  In my opinion Nadal has also lost some competitive intensity, which is understandable after so many years on the tour and so many matches.  Nadal is now in the unenviable position of being a huge target for players while no longer having the huge game that made him such a target.

The women

Karolina Pliskova finally manages her nerves. 

Pliskova, like her compatriot Thomas Berdych, has a big frame, huge weapons and easy power.  However, she has been her own worst enemy in many matches, where she has appeared to succumb to nerves.  She overcame that problem this week though, as she powered her way to the title.  She gets so many free points on serve and off the ground she could be a real threat if she stops snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  She is someone to watch at the Open.

Serena stays at #1. 

Angie Kerber fell short in this one, losing to Pliskova in the final.  Had she won, she would have assumed the number one ranking.  If Serena really cared about that she would have played a couple of rounds at this tournament, but in my opinion she’s more interested in being completely fit and sharp for the U.S. Open.  In skipping this tournament Serena claimed injury (shoulder), but don’t expect her to be hampered in New York. 

The winners

On the men’s side, Marin Cilic defeated Andy Murray in the final.  This is the first match Murray has lost in a long time, and as I said earlier, I believe Murray is playing the best tennis in the world right now.  As we know from his U.S. Open win, Cilic can be a very tough customer when he plays his best. 

On the women’s side, Karolina Pliskova beat Angelique Kerber in straight sets.  This win has already been discussed. 

Olympic Results with Cheer

Olympic tennis is over, but some nice things happened.  On the women’s side, Monica Puig, who has shown some signs of real improvement in her singles game over the past several months, won the gold medal.  She is a native of Puerto Rico, a territory beleaguered by debt and in misery at the moment.  She gave her homeland something to smile about, and we’ll see if this win propels her to greater success at the upcoming US Open.

On the men’s side, Juan Martin del Potro almost did one of the hardest things to do in the open era – beat three of the “big four” in three consecutive matches.  After taking out Djokovic and Nadal, he finally fell to Andy Murray, who is playing the best tennis of his career this year.  Will del Potro’s wrist hold up from here on out?  We have to wait and see, but nobody who is significantly hampered with an injury can take out players of the caliber of Djokovic and Nadal, so we have to assume the wrist is OK for now.  As with Puig, we have to watch him over the next several weeks to find out if he’s at a new level.  Grats to Murray, who won his second Olympic gold.

Atlanta, Olympics

Atlanta

The Atlanta tournament was won by Nick Kyrgios over John Isner in very hot weather.  Isner committed one of my tennis no-nos (see July 8 post) which was:  “don’t double fault in tiebreakers”.  He did it once in the first set and twice in the second.  A little surprising that Kyrgios didn’t go to Rio, as he is the highest ranked player in Australia.

Olympics.

Novak Djokovic lost to Juan Martin del Potro, a big surprise.  Not that del Potro isn’t good, but Novak is the best hard court player in the world by a wide margin and del Potro has been hampered by a wrist injury, as we all know only too well.  Of note is that Djokovic has lost two big matches lately – Wimbledon and now the Olympics.  Relevant to these losses, in my opinion, is the reality of how difficult it is to stay unbeatable in tennis for more than about three years:

If you look at the records of previous greats of the game, only one, Roger Federer was essentially unbeatable for more than three years.  I am measuring “unbeatable” by looking at consecutive weeks with the number one ranking.  If you take a look at greats of the open era, here are their streaks of being number one uninterrupted:

Federer          237

Connors         160

Lendl             157

Sampras         102

Djokovic         99*

McEnroe         58

Nadal              56

* - still going

The reason it’s so hard to be totally dominant for very long is the extreme pressure on the number one player combined with the fact that competition is deep and stiff on the men’s tour.  When he retired, Sampras emphasized that the mental pressure, the travelling and the constant need to practice had taken their toll on him.  I believe Federer was able to stay at the top for so long because he actually enjoys the life style. 

Novak, as noted in recent posts, has been quite irritable on the court recently.  He was nearly disqualified from a couple of clay court warmups for the French Open because he nearly hit bystanders after throwing his racquet.  These recent surprising losses, considered along with his more volatile behavior, might indicate that the pressure is finally getting to him.  It’s worth keeping in mind that other things in his life may also be drawing his attention – like fatherhood.  It will be interesting to see how he performs at the US Open.  He looked pretty good at the Rogers Cup.

Let cord woes

            At both the Rogers Cup and Atlanta, many “false positive” let cords appeared to have been called by the net sensor.  This frustrated players.  In the Atlanta tournament, Kyrgios hit a serve that was called a let, and Brad Gilbert, a commentator, stated that the ball had passed several inches above the net.  On 6/21/16 in this blog I proposed a mechanism whereby the mechanical sensor might falsely detect a let, and suggested we go back to the tried and true method of having a human being simply put his finger on the net cord.  I say it again right now:  Give nets the finger!