ATP Year end
championships and 2018 outlook.
The year-end championships were a bit anticlimactic, with
Nadal bowing out in the round robin due to injury, Wawrinka, Nishikori,
Djokovic and Murray all absent, and Federer playing a little bit too relaxed, with
the off season in sight. David Goffin
defeated the damaged Nadal, lost badly to Grigor Dimitrov, and then beat
Federer in the semifinals after losing the first set 6-2. As noted, Fed looked a little bit too relaxed
as he started missing forehands and seemingly finding himself unable to give
that extra push to win that match. This
year was a long and grueling one for Roger, though Goffin deserves a lot of
credit for staying the course. In the
final Dimitrov again defeated Goffin, though the match was close. Kudos to Dimitrov, who played some great
tennis late in the year, and who showed off his many talents and physical
skills on his way to the title.
Year end Awards:
Player of the year, Rafa Nadal. Nadal had a great year, with 2 major titles,
including his record 10th at the French Open. I actually think Federer had a better year,
but they had to give some awards to someone else, as illustrated below.
Comeback player of the year, Roger Federer. Roger missed the second half of 2016, then
came back to win 2 majors, including a record 8th Wimbledon, and 3
masters 1000 events. He also beat Nadal
in several big matches, including the final of the Aussie Open. An amazing year.
Sportsmanship Award, Roger Federer. This was the 13th time Roger has
won this award. When he retires the
award should be renamed the Edberg/Federer sportsmanship award.
Fan favorite, Roger Federer.
For the 15th straight year.
Again, again.
Most improved player, Denis Shapovalov. Denis moved into the top 100 from far down in
the ranks, and beat Nadal in a third set tiebreaker in Montreal. This award could have gone to Sasha Zverev,
who won two masters 1000 events.
ATP star of tomorrow, Denis Shapovalov. No controversy on this one, though I believe
Denis will see a bit of a sophomore slump as top players figure out his
vulnerabilities and more of the best players are playing.
Humanitarian award, Horia Tecau of Romania.
2018 outlook:
With Murray, Djokovic, Nishikori
and Wawrinka coming back, and with Nadal presumably healthy, the younger guns
in the top 10 (Zverev, Dimitrov) will have a hard time holding onto their
rankings. Dimitrov should fare better,
as his deep runs in many tournaments late in 2017 helped him learn to deal with
high pressure situations, which has been a challenge for him in the past. The win at the year end championships should
give him a lot of confidence, and we should expect some great matches between
him and the traditional “big 4” next year.
Roger Federer should also have quite a challenge holding his ranking, as
he now has so many ranking points to defend.
With Roger, though, it’s about time we gave up making predictions. Players deserving a closer look include del
Potro, who showed some top level 5 play late in 2017, and Nick Kyrgios, whose
only weakness is between the ears.
Shapovalov and Tiafoe are youngsters worth keeping an eye on. I predict relatively tough years for the
fading Ferrer and Berdych, and for Wawrinka as well. Let’s hope all of the top players stay
healthy!
