US Open happenings

Federer survives Tiafoe. 

Roger Federer survived a challenge from Frances Tiafoe in a first round 5-setter.  This match was the worst Federer played this year, though Tiafoe deserves credit for outstanding play as well.  Tiafoe served well, hit a monster forehand, particularly of the “inside in” variety, and moved very well.  Tiafoe’s biggest weakness was at the net.  If he addresses this problem, which involves both decision-making about when to come in and flexibility when hitting the volley, he could become a top 10 player.  Federer was able to win by using his experience and consummate talent.  Concerns that back problems contributed to his spotty play were dismissed by Roger.

Though I hate to have to say it, aging appeared to compromise Federer’s play in this match.  It seemed to me that Federer rushed his serve, particularly in the first set.  He bounced the ball fewer times than usual and took less time between the bounces and initiation of his service motion.  This kind of impatience, which borders on jaded indifference that perhaps cannot be avoided when one has played more than 1350 career matches, led to relatively poor serving and a higher number of double faults than Roger typically hits.  Federer also appeared to be snatching at his forehand a bit, with less smoothness to the stroke.  It was interesting to see how these issues gradually abated during the match with Tiafoe.  In the second and third sets the typical Federer was evident.  Still, Roger failed to serve out the match in the 5^th set and had to break serve to win it.  Federer cannot win this tournament with the level of play he showed in this match with Tiafoe.  Over the year, Federer has exhibited a pattern of steadily improving play as tournaments progress.  We’ll see if that happens here, where Roger has more miles on his legs than at the start of the season.

Kerber down

            Angelique Kerber, the defending champ, went down in straight sets to Naomi Osaka.  Kerber’s play has been poor by her standards for several months.  Osaka is also a dangerous floater – a player with tremendous power who throws caution to the winds.  That kind of play can beat anyone on a good day, and such was the case here.  Kerber’s quarter has Madison Keys, Jelena Ostapenko and Elina Svitolina, the highest seed in the quarter.

Sharapova returns

Maria Sharapova, given a wild card into the main draw of the US Open, faced world number 2 Simona Halep in her first match, a night match in Ashe stadium.  This was not a good draw for either player!

Sharapova’s more vociferous detractors (Bouchard, Mladenovic, Murray, the retired Capriati) undoubtedly did not expect Sharapova to win even one game against the match tough Halep.  After all, Maria no longer has the benefit of Meldonium, the drug alleged, despite the absence of any scientific tests of its effect on athletic performance, to be a performance enhancer.  But shockingly, the drug-free Sharapova dominated this match, which went three sets only because some spotty play caused Maria to give up a second set break.  Sharapova moved quite well and hit her flat, penetrating shots quite consistently for someone who must be at least a little bit rusty.  Sharapova also showed good endurance, moving well at the end of this 3-setter.  The one negative in Maria’s play was that in the 15 months she was away from the game, she did nothing to eliminate her stentorian grunting.  Tennis fans will undoubtedly accept the noise, however, if her play continues to be at such a high level. 

Garbine Muguruza’s comment on Sharapova’s return is perhaps the most meaningful – specifically, that Maria’s presence in the draw improves the tournament.  This assertion certainly proved true, as this hard fought match with Halep electrified the huge crowd and enthralled viewers from around the world.

Sharapova is not the best liked player on the tour.  She is anything but gregarious, and her good looks, great tennis and smarts have propelled her to financial success that few players will ever enjoy.  It’s hardly surprising that she engenders some resentment and, let’s be honest, jealousy, in her fellow players.  But what must be remembered about sports is that performance is the only standard by which a player should be measured.  If someone produces when on the court, then their vagaries of personality are nothing more than fodder for the tabloids. 

Maria will not win this tournament, but I, for one, enjoy watching her consummate skills and fiery competitiveness.  So from my point of view, it’s WELCOME BACK!

Other surprise wins:  Jordan Thompson beats Jack Sock in 5.  Alexandra Krunic beats Johanna Konta in 3.

US Open outlook

The men:  In a weird quirk, the two highest seeded active players, Federer and Nadal, are in the same half of the draw.  This happened  because Murray, who would have been seeded second, pulled out late.  The toughest opponent in Nadal’s quarter is probably Grigor Dimitrov.  Federer’s quarter is tougher, with Thiem, del Potro and Kyrgios all there.  In the top quarter of the lower half sits Sasha Zverev, seeded 4^th.  Isner, Sock and Khachanov are dangerous players in his quarter.  The bottom quarter is held down by Marin Cilic.  Denis Shapovalov, whom everyone will be watching, is in that quarter.

            This should be quite an interesting tournament.  With Federer’s health uncertain and Nadal showing vulnerability on hard courts leading up to the open, an opportunity may open up for a relative newcomer like Sasha Zverev or Dominic Thiem.  Federer plays Francis Tiafoe in the first round, which looks like the most interesting first round match.  Tiafoe has had a strong summer.

The women:  The top seed is Karolina Pliskova, whose quarter is pretty light.  Svetlana Kuznetsova is there, as is Aggie Radwanska.  If Pliskova has her act together she should get through.  She is defending a lot of points, having made the final last year.  The second quarter of the top half is quite an interesting one, with Svitolina, Ostapenko (French Open winner), Madison Keys and Angie Kerber.  It’s anyone’s guess who will come through here.  I favor Svitolina or Keys.  Kerber is the defending champ whose play has dipped over the year, but she plays well on the big stage.   The top quarter of the lower half is governed by Garbine Muguruza.  If she plays her best she will get through, but she has Wozniaki, Kvitova and Venus Williams to contend with in her quarter.  The final quarter is headed by Simona Halep.  Johanna Konta is in this quarter along with Sloane Stephens, who has looked very good this summer.  Stephens has the tools to destroy anyone, and every match she plays gets her back into a rhythm which certainly must have suffered with her long layoff.

            As with the men, this is a very interesting tournament.  The stongest players this summer have been Muguruza, Halep and Wozniaki.  No player really controls the women’s tour right now, so this tournament could be full of surprises and intriguing play.

My picks:

The men:  Federer, Nadal, Zverev

The women:  Muguruza, Halep, Pliskova

Cincinnati Finals

Muguruza dominates.  Garbine Muguruza continued the top notch play she displayed at Wimbledon by dominating Simona Halep in final.  Muguruza has changed her approach by putting more shape on the ball when she is out of position, particularly on her forehand side.  This technique has improved her defense, by allowing her to get points back to neutral and extending them, and helped her offense by having her big shots played when she is in a better position.  As a result, she is making fewer errors and winning many base line exchanges that she would have lost last year.  Combine these improvements with a serve that gives her a significant number of free points, and you have a dominating player.  She has to be one of the favorites at the US Open.  Although Halep said she played poorly in this final, it looked more to me like Garbine simply had an answer for everything Halep tried to do.  This was impressive tennis from Muguruza.

Dimitrov dominates.  Grigor Dimitrov used timely power inside-in forehands, a backhand that varied slice and topspin beautifully, tremendous court coverage and raquet skill, and a serve that several times reached the 130’s to take out Nick Kyrgios in straight sets.   This was the Dimitrov everybody thought they would see when he first appeared on the tour.  As great a talent as Kyrgios is, he is fundamentally an impatient player who had difficulty here when challenged time and again to play rally balls or to restart points after losing a tactical advantage.  Kyrgios’ other obvious problems – loss of concentration and foolish gamesmanship, were not evident in this match.  Here, Dimitrov simply outplayed Kyrgios, who also had a very good tournament. Kyrgios should to review film of his win this week over Nadal, when he faced almost all topspin shots to his backhand, and compare it to his to his loss in the final, where he was confronted with an unpredictable mix of topspins and slices.  Kyrgios really had trouble with that.   

            A big question is, how far will these two go in their careers?  If Dimitrov played all of the time the way he did this week, he will win more than one major and reach the world top 5.  Similarly, if Kyrgios continues to improve his concentration and grows up a bit, he will be highly successful.  In the US Open I predict Dimitrov to do better, given that the draws are comparable, because Kyrgios still goes walkabout too much to win 5-set matches consistently.  We’ll find out in a few days.

Cincinnati Happenings

Tiafoe looking good:  Frances Tiafoe, the young American, took out Sasha Zverev, one of the toughest guys to beat this year.  He then went down in a close one to John Isner, but his performance in this tournament gives cause for optimism.

Federer injured.  Roger Federer pulled out of this tournament with back problems that apparently surfaced in the Rogers Cup final.  Federer looked poorly in the second set of that match, which Sasha Zverev won.  We all hope he will be fully fit for the US open.

Nadal to become #1:  On Monday Rafa Nadal will become #1 in the world for the 4^th time.  He’s had a great year, and none of his rivals for the top spot are playing.

Townsend, Sharapova to get wild cards: Taylor Townsend looked pretty good in Cincinnati before being drubbed by Simona Halep.  Townsend is rather heavy set, which certainly should not count against her, but her relative lack of court coverage did hurt her in the Halep match.  Regardless of her weight, she needs to work on that aspect.  Her ball striking is outstanding.  Taylor will receive a well deserved wild card into the US Open draw.  Maria Sharapova will also get a wild card.  She has not played much since returning from her suspension because of various injuries.  She is a previous champion at the US Open, so her presence should provide some interesting tennis to watch.

Keys, Muguruza looking good.  Madison Keys lost a close one to Garbine Muguruza in this tournament.  Both players, however, are producing some very good tennis.  After winning the French Open last year, where she blew Serena Williams off the court in the final, Muguruza played uninspiring tennis.  But this year her play after winning Wimbledon has been very strong.  If she can maintain her grand slam standard of play during regular tournaments she will become #1 in the world.   Madison Keys, coming off a wrist injury, has also shown consistently strong play.  She’s another who could be #1 if she harnessed her power and learned to play more tactical tennis.  I think she should also work on coming to the net more often, as her groundies often put opponents on their heals.