Wimbledon Draws and Picks

The men:

Favorites:       1) Djokovic

2) Murray

3) Federer

Novak is the obvious favorite right now.  Nobody is beating him consistently. Nadal is out of the tournament as well.  Murray is in great shape and beat Djokovic Italy this year in a 3-set match on clay.  Murray has won Wimbledon before and will be playing at home, so he at least has a good chance of reaching the final.  I don’t see him beating Djokovic there, however.  Federer is, well, Federer.  Nobody thinks on the court like him or makes shots like him, and he’s won the thing seven times.  In 2015 Federer took Djokovic out of a couple of Masters 1000 events, but those were 3 set matches and Federer has not been healthy enough to play consistently this year.  Something of a long shot, given his age and sparce play leading up to the tournament, but he is still, well, Federer.

They have a chance

1) Wawrinka

2) Nishikori

3) Thiem

4) Raonic

Wawrinka has been a little bit less than inspiring this year, but he still has that awesome power game when things are working for him.  To beat Djokovic one MUST get free points on serve, and Wawrinka has a big first serve.  Nishikori, one of the quickest and most agile players in the world, should be helped on grass, where his relatively weak serve can do more damage.  Dominic Thiem has had an amazing year.  Both his first and second serves are very good.  He plays a clay court style of tennis, but has been successful on the grass court warmup circuit.  Milos Raonic, as pointed out in other posts, rarely loses early in tournaments.  He also has his monster serve and is much better net player than people give him credit for.  He’s in Djokovic’ quarter, which will make it tough.  He’s made little headway with Djokovic in the past.

Potential spoilers

                        1) Thomas Berdych

                        2) David Goffin

                        3) Nick Kyrgios

                        4) JW Tsonga

                        5) Alexander Zverev

            It’s hard to think of Thomas Berdych as a spoiler, as he’s been so consistently near the top of the game for so long.  He’s also made the final in the past (2010), beating Federer on the way.  However, he’s fallen back just a bit recently.  David Goffin is a tennis genius who, though small in stature, is figuring out how to beat the best players.  His serve, like Nishikori’s, should be helped by the grass.   This guy has great hands and is a lot of fun to watch.  Nick Kyrgios has a fabulous game for grass.  He has a great serve, powerful groundies, and he moves well for a big man.  The question with him is whether he will bring his brain to the court along with his racquet.  JW Tsonga is also a power merchant who beat Federer from two sets down once at Wimbledon.   Zverev is a young 6’6” powerhouse who is rapidly improving his court tactics.  He also has a serve the got him out of trouble several times in a victory over Federer in Halle.  Definitely a guy to can take anyone out, save perhaps Djokovic, on any given day.

Interesting first round encounters:

1) Dominic Thiem vs. Florian Mayer.  Mayer beat Thiem in Halle just a few days ago.  This is a big match for the up and coming Thiem.

2) Zverev vs. Mathieu, first round.  Mathieu is a tough customer and experienced pro.  Not an easy first rounder for Zverev.

3) Coric vs. Karlovic.  Like Zverev with Mathieu, Coric  could suffer a first round setback in his developing career when he faces the horrifying serve of Karlovic.  Big match for Borna.

4) Tomic vs. Verdasco.  Tomic fancies himself a top 10 player.  Seeded 19 here, he plays a seasoned pro with a big serve and forehand in Verdasco.  If he wants to be top 10, these are the kind of matches Tomic must win.

5) Isner vs. Baghdatis.  Baghdatis, former Australian Open finalist, is having something of a resurgence this year.  Isner’s serve should get him through, but this is a dangerous matchup for him.

6) Wawrinka vs. Fritz.  This a tough draw for Fritz, but the young American has a big serve and is a good competitor.  Not likely to beat Stan, but the match will be fun to watch.