FRENCH OPEN PICKS – THE MEN

Most likely to succeed:

1) Novak Djokovic:  Still the #1 player in the world by a wide margin, Djokovic is the clear favorite.  Some chinks in his physical and emotional armors have appeared over the past several weeks.  In his win over Thomaz Belucci (ranked 39 this week) in the Italian Open, he lost a set by 6-0 and converted only 13% of his second serve points.  He had several other 3- set matches, and exhibited some emotional stress in several of them.  For example, he resumed his excessive ball bouncing and received several warnings for ball and racquet abuse.   In the 5- set French Open matches, though, he will have time to deal with these issues and prevail. 

2) Andy Murray:  He’s had a great clay court season, beating both Nadal and Djokovic in separate tournaments.  He has served his way out of trouble in several tight situations, and is got more penetration on his forehand than in the past.  Without Mauresmo in his box, he has fewer people to yell at in tough moments, a situation that I believe helps him focus.  He also has looked extremely fit and ready to win the wars of attrition that can take place on clay.

3) Rafael Nadal:  This man still possesses the unique ability to play effectively from 10 feet behind the baseline, where he can both run balls down and hit winners.  His competitive intensity is also an asset.  Two Reasons for Nadal’s decline in dominance, even on clay, over the past months have been an increase in unforced errors and failure to play the big points as well as he used to.  Both of these problems were manifest in his loss to Murray in Italy, where he made two critical errors in the final game to lose the match.  Still one of the favorites, though.

4) Kei Nishikori:  Played great tennis during the clay court swing.  He could easily have beaten Djokovic in Italy.  He has had some tough, close matches over this stretch, which, in my opinion, has pushed his game to a higher level than ever before.  Kei gets few free points on his serve, but this liability is mitigated on clay, where his opponents will also be less dominant on serve.  He has shown some lack of endurance on occasion in the past, and if this issue surfaces at the French, where 5-set matches on clay can be very grueling, he may run into trouble, particularly late in the tournament.  

They have a chance:

1) Stan Wawrinka:  The defending champ, and a massively strong player with a very big serve and huge backhand.  His forehand can also be very penetrating, as was the case in his finals victory over Djokovic in 2015.   Stan’s play can be up-and-down, though, and it is for that reason that Nishikori displaces him as one of the favorites.

2) Roger Federer:  One of the greatest clay court players of the open era, and perhaps the greatest tennis player ever.  Federer is aging, however, and both illness and injury have deprived him of needed match play over the past several weeks.  When Federer plays he always has a chance.  Roger has not decided for certain that he can play the French this year.  If he does, his consummate skills, incredible gracefulness, outstanding sportsmanship and unique tactical approach will once again make watching him one of the most wonderful experiences in all of sports.  So we all hope he plays!

Long shots

1) Nick Kyrgios:  This guy has all of the physical tools needed to win a major, but has been hampered in the past by inexperience and immaturity.  During the clay court swing, though, he gained quite a lot of experience and remained relatively stable emotionally through some very tough matches.  Is he ready to win yet?  Not likely, but he is definitely someone to keep an eye on.

2) Dominic Thiem.  This tremendously talented, focused player has beaten Nadal, Ferrer and Almagro on clay this year.  His win over Federer in Italy seemed aided by Federer’s physical limitations, so that win is not as informative.  His ground strokes are ferocious and he has a terrific second serve.  If the old adage “you’re only as good as your second serve” is still true, Thiem is in a good place.   Still a long shot, but worth following closely.

3) Milos Raonic.  Raonic has a monster serve as we all know.  His forehand is also huge, his backhand is improving, and he is a far better volleyer than people give him credit for.  Moreover, he rarely loses the matches he should win, which regularly puts him the later rounds of most tournaments.  His weaknesses: he is reasonably fast but not very quick or agile, and he can’t seem to get free points from Djokovic on his serve.  An additional great strength:  Raonic systematically analyzes his losses and looks to learn from them.  Expect him to continue to improve. 

Dangerous floaters

1) Alexander Zverev:  Currently ranked 48, Zverev is a rapidly improving player with good size, a big serve, and a powerful forehand.  He came within one point of ousting Nadal from Indian Wells.  This is definitely a player you don’t want to see in an early round.

2) Borna Coric:  Currently ranked 44.  This youngster has developed a bit more slowly than expected, but he’s a very talented player with a great all-court game. 

3) Pablo Cuevas.  Currently ranked 27.  A terrific clay court player and tough competitor who has a win on clay over Nadal this year.  Not a guy you want to see.

Others: You never want to see the huge servers: Isner, Karlovic etc.  Others of concern are players that can be incredible sometimes:  Fognini, Monfils.  Finally, be careful of Gilles Simon, a solid pro once ranked as high as 6 in the world.