Wimbledon Outlook

This is a year when predictions for the Wimbledon championships are particularly hard to make. 

On the men’s side, Andy Murray’s play has been spotty all year, and his first round loss at the Aegon championships to a qualifier can hardly allay concerns about his chances.  He’s had great success at Wimbledon and the crowd will be behind him, but performance right now is all that counts in sports.  Similarly, Novak Djokovic has been very inconsistent for several months.  Roger Federer started the grass season a little roughly after a 10-week layoff, but won his 9^th Halle tournament very impressively with a win over Sasha Zverev.  Federer has been the best in the world off of clay this year, but he will turn 36 shortly.  Can a man that age best a field of young guns and veteran greats in seven 5-set matches?  We’ll have to see.   Nadal’s play on clay this year has been awesome, and he has won Wimbledon before.  Despite his claims of difficulty on grass, I believe he is one of the real favorites.

Long shots for this tournament include Milos Raonic, who has made the final in the past, but who has not elevated his play to his previously best level since coming back from injury.  Grigor Dimitrov has also had a great year and has a good game for grass.  Dominic Thiem is the only guy to handle Nadal on clay this year, beating Nadal in the Italian Open final, but clay is not grass.  Sasha Zverev’s consistently high performance (he made the final two years in a row in Halle) bode very well for him in the long term, though he is not likely to take the Wimbledon title this year.  Nobody wants to play him, that’s for sure.  The Australians: Nick Kyrgios, Thanasi Kokkinakis and Bernie Tomic, might all be categorized as dangerous floaters right now.

My pick: Nadal

The women’s side is also wide open.  The most consistent players this year have been Simona Halep and Elina Svitolina, neither of whom has ever won a major.  Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova will not be playing.  Victoria Azarenka will be back but has had a very long layoff.  Kerber and Muguruza have been inconsistent.  Former finalist Bouchard is nowhere to be seen.  Petra Kvitova is back from a dreadful injury to her left hand (she’s a lefty).  She won in the Birmingham warmup and has been hitting the ball quite well.  She has a great game for grass and has won the tournament twice.  If she minimizes her lapses of play during matches, Karolina Pliskova could take the title.  She will get a lot of free points on serve.  Jelena Ostapenko has continued her strong play after winning the French Open.  I don’t think she will win this tournament, but it is important for her to do well enough to solidify her position near the very top of the game.  Caroline Wozniaki has been playing great tennis but has never won a major.  Johanna Konta will be on her home court at Wimbledon, but her play has faltered somewhat over the past few weeks.

My pick:  This is a tough one!!  Karolina Pliskova