WTA year end and 2018 outlook

The WTA ended its year with a win by Caroline Wozniaki over Venus Williams.  This was a resurgent year for Wozniaki, as a result, in my opinion, of her decision to hit a flatter forehand inside out more often.  In the past her forehand was a predictable topspin crosscourt shot that players could prepare for and tee off on.  Now she is penetrating the court better, and with her awesome court coverage and fitness, she is back near the very top of the tour.  Look for continued success for her in 2018.

The WTA awards were as follows:

Player of the year:  Garbine Muguruza, Wimbledon champ.  Garbine has the talent to dominate the game, but does she have the psyche for it?  We’ll see.

Most improved: Jelena Ostapenko, French Open champ.  The upstart French Open titlist backed up her success pretty well, but look for her to struggle a bit in 2018 as more top players figure out how to play her.

Comeback Player of the Year:  Sloane Stevens.  After months away following surgery, she powered her way to the US Open title with some marvelous play.  She remains a bit of an enigma, however.  Witness her Fed Cup finals performances, where she was up breaks of serve in third sets of two matches and lost them both.  Like Muguruza, her mental approach will determine her success. 

Newcomer of the year:  Cici Bellis.  Kind of an unusual choice, given that she beat Dominika Cibulkova in the 2014 US Open.  If she continues to improve she will further buttress the already strong cohort of female players from the US.

Aces Award:  Angelique Kerber.  This is basically a sportsmanship award, though it purports to reward off court activities.  A tough year this year for Angie.  I predict she will continue to lose her grip on the top of the game.

2018:  Next year will see the return of Serena Willliams and Victoria Azarenka, both of whom took a break to become mothers.  Serena is not getting any younger, so I predict she will win a lot of matches but not retake the number one spot.  Her goal should be try to peak for majors, as Roger Federer on the men’s side does so well.  Azarenka is still pretty young, and if personal issues don’t interfere with her training and play, she could dash the title ambitions of many of her peers next year.

           

Players to keep an eye on include Karolina Pliskova, who still has a lot of room for improvement in her game, and Madison Keys, the hardest hitter on the women’s tour.  Of course there are many young guns as well.  Too many to list (like Osaka, Konjuh etc.).

                                      

Overall the tour should be exciting, unpredictable, and filled with dramatic matches.

Federer wins in Shanghai

With an awesome display of racquet control and accurate serving, Roger Federer dominated Rafa Nadal to win the title in Shanghai.   As noted before in this blog, Federer occasionally produces tennis that simply goes beyond great play into a realm that most players don’t even think about entering, thereby to produce matches for the ages.  Such was the case in this match, where Nadal, who has been virtually unbeatable since Cincinnati in the middle of the summer, was totally outplayed (to get a feel for the level of Roger’s hand-eye skills, take a look at the backhand he hit to break Nadal in the first game of the match).  Federer’s new racquet has led to a better second serve and a backhand that anyone, even Stan Wawrinka, would envy.   The racquet has allowed Federer’s mind boggling talents to manifest themselves more consistently, and as a result, even Nadal, himself an other-worldly player, cannot cope with them. 

Perhaps lost in this amazing final was the overall high level of play in this tournament.   Commentators often note that at this time of year players can be tired and prone to playing less than their best tennis.  That was not the case here, where Nadal, Federer, Dimitrov, del Potro and Cilic all played marvelous tennis.  Matches to look back at include the Dimitrov encounter with Nadal (one of the year’s best), del Potro’s matches with Sasha Zverev and Federer, and Cilic’ straight set loss to Nadal.  In my opinion the play overall in this tournament was the best of all the Masters 1000 events this year.

Another take home message was, once again, the weather conditions.  Early in the week the weather was dangerously hot and humid.   Please, ATP, add a weather break after the second set for the men, as is done for the women when the weather is this brutal!

Shanghai happenings

The Shanghai Rolex Masters is the only 1000 event in Asia, and all of the active “big guns” are there.  Here are some highlight events.

1)  The weather.  The weather at the start of the tournament was brutal, with temperatures in the 90’s and humidity in the mid 80’s.  These conditions forced Jack Sock to retire from his match, and led to a 6-0 final set loss by Denis Shapovalov in his match with Victor Troicki.  As pointed out on this blog before, the planet is getting warmer, and the risk of heat stroke, a potentially fatal decompensation that results from excessive heat exposure, is increasing.  I’ve suggested before that the men, like the women, should be given a 10 minute break after the second set if conditions are so difficult.  Let’s hope the ATP is considering it.

2)  Kyrgios flops.  Nick Kyrgios got the worst of an errant line call in his match with Steve Johnson, and responded with unsportsmanlike conduct and verbal abuse of a spectator, after which he walked off the court at the end of the first set.  If Kyrgios can’t handle the pressure of high level competition better that that, he will always be a journeyman player.  Only grownups reach the top of the tour.

3)  Nadal looks awesome.  Rafa Nadal has dominated his opponents throughout the Asian tour, and his performance this far in Shanghai has been truly awesome.  He is doing everything well, and has been in total command of his matches.  Looks unbeatable.

4)  Federer is well, Federer.  Roger Federer decided to play in this tournament, and has elected to travel to the venue on the subway system.  He waits in line to buy his subway tickets like everyone else.  Other passengers have enjoyed chatting with him while he’s on his way to work, and he seems as affable as ever while socializing with them.  There will never be another one like Roger!

Stephens dominates Keys

Sloane Stephens dominated Madison Keys, 6-3, 6-0 to win the US Open.  Stephens presented three major problems that Keys was unable to negotiate.  First was her spectacular movement, with regard to both speed and footwork.  Stephens’ blazing speed allowed her extend rallies even after scorching ground strokes from Keys, and her footwork allowed her to make telling shots even when rushed.  Second, Stephens hits a heavy ball, particularly on the forehand side, and Keys had a difficult time controlling the ball sufficiently to keep it in play.  Third, Stephens did not overplay.  She hit some very penetrating shots, but those shots were high percentage plays.  In many cases, Stephens won points simply because Keys, who plays a higher risk game, missed first.

Another problem for Keys in this match, and all of her matches, is that her flat, hard shots are not well suited to dealing with short balls.  One must hit short balls up to get them over the net, and Keys hits so hard and flat that she has trouble keeping those shots in the court.

From the perspective of the TV viewer, the only problem watching this masterful performance by Stephens came from the commentary by Chris Evert.  Leaving aside her irritatingly poor grammar, her focus on the psychological states of the players, rather than the specifics on how the points developed and were decided, was just plain tiresome.  Any statements about what a player is thinking and feeling must necessarily be based on speculation, and as such, they are not terribly informative.  Great players like Evert should be able to provide more trenchant insights into the way points evolve, the kinds of skills that shots pose for the opposing player, etc. 

Of interest now is where these two grand slam ingénues will go from here.  Will they establish a level of dominance in the sport, or fade into the background?  My hope is that they will continue to excel and produce great rivalries with the other current greats like the new number one, Muguruza, Pliskova, and the convalescent Kvitova.  Both Keys and Stephens have tremendous talent, so let’s hope they stay healthy and motivated. 

Men’s semifinals:  These went as predicted here, with Anderson and Nadal winning.  A word of advice to tennis balls:  Don’t sit up after a slice, three feet behind the service line, when Nadal is there, poised to hit a forehand.  If you do that you will get spanked!!

US Open happenings

Federer loses to del Potro.  Roger Federer lost his quarterfinal match with Juan Martin del Potro in four sets.  This match couldn’t have been summarized any better than was done by Federer in his post match interview.  To put it simply, Roger wasn’t playing at a level in this tournament that would have beaten Nadal or given him any real chance of winning the whole thing.  Federer’s ground strokes were weaker than earlier in the year, as was his serve, and he played big points poorly.  He had two set points on his own serve in the third set tiebreaker but failed to convert and lost the set.  Is the 36-year-old just a little bit tired after all of the tennis he has played in 2017?  It’s hard to know.  It’s a bit painful to watch this legendary talent produce tennis that is so far below his best, but such is reality.  At least Roger, as is typical of him, made no excuses.  In my opinion, del Potro’s chances to beat Nadal are slim at best.  If he red lines his game, both on the serve and on the forehand, he may have a chance.

Stephens beats Venus Williams.  In a thrilling match, Sloane Stephens took out Venus Williams in a 3 set semi.  The third set was amazing, with great hitting from both.  Ultimately it was Stephens’ spectacular court coverage that won the day.  Venus got a bit tired both physically and mentally as her great shots kept coming back.  If you want to have fun, replay the 5-5 game in the third set, with Venus serving!

Keys dominates Coco.  Madison Keys looked just awesome in her semifinal decimation of Coco Vandeweigh.  Sometimes players are just too good, and Keys was on this day.  A great tournament for Coco, who took out world number one Karolina Pliskova in the previous round.  As a result of Pliskova’s loss, Wimbledon champ Garbine Muguruza will become world number one on Monday. 

Predictions

Nadal will beat del Potro

Kevin Anderson will beat Pablo Carreno Busta

Nadal will beat Anderson in the final.

Keys vs. Stephens:  Pick ‘em