Interesting Miami Matches

There were three interesting matches on the men’s side, all involving Roger Federer.  The contests were not important because of Federer, whose awesome play continues, but rather, because of performances of his opponents.  The matches involved:

1) Francis Tiafoe.  The young American lost to Fed in straight sets, but looked very good.  He served consistently in the low 130’s, handled Federer’s vexing short slices very well, and moved quite well.  Serving at 1-2, 0-40 in the second set, Tiafoe began to exhibit some exertional grunting, indicative of physical and perhaps psychological fatigue.  So he went down, but if he keeps playing the way he did in this match, he could move up significantly in the rankings.

2) Juan Martin del Potro.  Delpo also lost in straight sets, but definitely played top 10 tennis.  He served extremely well, hit his forehand very hard as usual, and came over his backhand on almost every shot.  If he stays healthy he will be in the top 10 again, maybe even this year.

3) Roberto Bautista Agut.  Again, a straight set loss to Roger, but in two tiebreak sets.  Agut has lost only a few matches this year, and played Roger very tough.  Although he made a high percentage of first serves, Agut didn’t really get a lot of free points on serve.  However, his movement and tactical skills were really outstanding.  He looked like the second best Spaniard in the world to me.

Other notable results:

Alex Zverev came from behind to knock top seeded Stan Wawrinka (apparently pronounced “ouarinka”, so I’m trying to get used to it) out of the tournament.  A big win there. 

Nick Kyrgios also looked almost like an adult as he continued to cruise through the tournament.  He has beaten Karlovic and David Goffin, who is never an easy out.  Is Kyrgios coming into his own?

Raonic is out again with another muscle problem, this time a hamstring.  He’s a big guy who puts a lot of stress on those leg muscles when he moves fast and changes direction on the court.  Let’s hope he figures out a well to get healthy and stay that way. 

Indian Wells

Now the Indian Wells tournament, a big event on the tour, has ended.  The following were the interesting occurrences:

The women:

 Vesnina wins.  Elena Vesnina, noted through most of her career for her doubles play, had a fantastic run and won the tournament with a finals victory over Svetlana Kuznetsova.  She had to defeat world #2 Angelique Kerber and Venus Williamns to get there.  Venus again had a very good tournament.  She is closing in on her 37^th birthday, so her trip to the 4^th round was really impressive.  Other notable features of the women’s tournament included the emergence of Kayla Day, a young American, who defeated Lucic-Baroni and came close to beating Garbine Muguruza.  Day has a good serve, especially for someone so young, so she looks like a terrific prospect provided she stays healthy.  Kristina Mladenovic, the French woman who has expressed the most negative feelings about Sharapova’s drug suspension of any woman on the tour, also had a good run.  She beat Simona Halep on her way to the semis where she lost to Vesnina. 

            Karolina Pliskova also had a good tournament, reaching the semis before losing to Kuznetsova.  The match with Kuznetsova was notable for some statements by Chris Evert, who provided expert commentary.  Evert stated that Kuznetsova was the best all court player on the women’s tour, which is clearly untrue.  Certainly both Serena Williams and Aggie Radwanska have better all court skills.  Evert also said that Kuznetsova should avoid playing long points against Pliskova, which is again clearly false.  The object against someone like Pliskova, a hard hitter who moves relatively poorly and hits flat, is to make that player hit as many balls as possible.  Kuznetsova is quite adept at covering the court, so playing long points, especially on Pliskova’ serve, was clearly in Kuznetsova’s interest.  More on commentators’ foibles in a separate future post.

The men:

Federer wins.  Roger Federer did it again, beating his countryman Stan Wawrinka in the final.  That is Federer’s fifth title at Indian Wells.  Considering all that has happened with Federer since Wimbledon last year, two questions come to mind:

1) Will Federer be voted comeback player of the year at the end of 2017?

2) Will Federer ascend to the number one ranking?  This question may seem fanciful, but consider all of the success Federer has had so far this year, the vulnerability of Murray and Djokovic, Federer’s recent dominance over Nadal, and the fact that Federer has no points to defend after Wimbledon.  It could happen!

Other notable events in this side of the draw were: 

Djokovic and Murray losing early.  Murray lost in the second round to Vasek Pospisil of Canada, and Novak went out to Nick Kyrgios in the third round.  Neither of these guys has a tight grip on men’s tennis.  Given that Novak won the tournament last year, he will lose a substantial number of ranking points.  That trend will continue in the Miami Open.  Djokovic won it last year but will not defend the title this year because of an elbow problem. 

Kyrgios plays well.   Nick Kyrgios engaged in some antics during this tournament, but overall he played quite well.  He beat Djokovic for the second time in a row, and he looked like the better player in their match here.  A Federer-Kyrgios match in the next round would have been intriguing, but Kyrgios pulled out because of apparent food poisoning.  Watch out for Nick this year if he keeps his head together.

Federer dominates Nadal.  Although Nadal loves clay, the gritty hard court at Indian Wells is actually a good one for him.  That didn’t stop Roger from totally dominating this match, with two service breaks in each set.  This was one of Federer’s jaw-dropping performances that leave you wondering how anyone could be that talented at tennis.  If you’re interesting in seeing a replay of any match, this is the one to watch. 

More Post Australian Open Happenings

So as we approach the clay court season, some more interesting patterns are emerging.

The men: Andy Murray won in Dubai after losing early in the Ausralian Open.  The draw in Dubai was pretty favorable after Federer went out by losing two tiebreak sets (second and third sets) to qualifier Evgeny Donskoy.  However, Murray again lost early at Indian Wells.  Murray is definitely the world’s number one player, but he is proving not to have a stranglehold on that position.  Djokovic also lost in Acapulco in his first encounter ever with Nick Kyrgios.  Kyrgios is acting a little bit more like an adult, though he produced a couple of unwise trick shots in the match with Djokovic.  The mystery of Djokovic continues.

Sam Querrey had an amazing run in Acapulco, beating Kyrgios, Thiem and Nadal on his way to the title.  However, after several years on the tour, Sam’s inconsistent play is an established pattern.  He went out to Donald Young at Indian Wells. 

Taylor Fritz, the young American, has made a good showing at Indian Wells, beating Benoit Paire and then the world #7 Marin Cilic.  This big man actually plays a lot like Cilic, so the match was quite exciting to watch.  Fritz is a guy with potential.

Nadal is still not playing as well as he did when he was number one, but he is playing better this year, and, barring injury, should be considered one of the favorites at the French Open. 

Federer looks relaxed and at ease after his amazing win in Australia.  He is still the guy everyone wants to watch. 

The women: 

Svitolina shines.  Elina Svitolina has suddenly blossomed.  She has already won two tournaments this year and has not lost a match in several weeks.  How far she can take her talents as the year progresses remains to be seen. 

Double vision:  Don’t look now, but Karolina Pliskova’s identical twin sister, the left-handed Kristina, is starting to make some noise.  She lost a 3-setter to Cibulkova at Indian Wells but looked very dangerous.  Like her sister, Kristina has easy power.  Keep an eye on her.

Good Day to you: Kayla Day, the 17-year-old American also looked very good at Indian Wells, defeating Lucic Baroni and then losing a close one to Muguruza.  Day’s first serve, now clocking between 105 and 110, is one of her weapons, as is her forehand.  Her biggest asset at the moment is her talent for playing high percentage tennis.  As she gets stronger she could become a force on the tour.

Keys to victory: Madison Keys is back from wrist surgery and continues to scorch the ball.  With the women’s tour somewhat up for grabs right now, Keys has a real chance to rise high in the rankings. 

Post Australian Open Happenings

There have been several 250 events following the Australian Open.  The following general trends are apparent, mainly involving the men’s game:

Alex Zverev and Grigor Dimitrov.  These two are continuing their strong play, with Zverev winning the Open Sud de France and Dimitrov winning in Sofia.  Both lost in other finals, but in general, they both are threatening to be in the top 10 before the year is over. 

Goffin makes top 10.  Consistent winning put David Goffin in the top 10 for the first time.  He made the finals in Sofia and Rotterdam, and although he did not win a title his consistency got him to a career high #9.   Grats to a small guy (155 lbs.) playing in a big man’s game!

A rising star?  After several years languishing in the rankings, Nikoloz Basilashvili of the Georgian Republic has rising sharply in the rankings to #53.  He has a win over Dominic Thiem.  Best to keep an eye on this hard hitter.

Federer has last laugh.  Last year Roger Federer was asked to comment on Bernie Tomic’s prediction that he would play himself into the top 10.  Federer responded that he thought it unlikely that Tomic would make the top 10 because of Bernie’s history of inconsistent play.  Tomic responded acerbically that Roger can’t beat Djokovic or Murray, a retort which suggested that Tomic didn’t have a lot of respect for Roger’s game.  So where are we now?  Tomic’s ranking fell steadily in 2016, and in 2017 he has won only two matches, both at the Australian Open.  His rank has fallen to 41.  Meanwhile, poor Roger just managed to come back from a 6-month absence to beat 4 top 10 players in one week, win three 5-set matches in a row, and defeat Rafa Nadal in the third of those 5-setters to claim his 18^th major title.   So I guess we can say Roger has the last laugh on this one, except for the fact that Bernie Tomic’s underachievement is anything but funny. 

Women are now back at it after Fed cup.  Analysis pending

Federer Wins AO

In what must b e considered the greatest achievement of the open era, Roger Federer defeated Rafa Nadal in five sets to win the Australian Open.  At age 35, after six months off the tour, Federer came back to defeat Thomas Berdych, ranked 10, Kei Nishikori, ranked 5, Stan Wawrinka, ranked 4, and finally Nadal, ranked 9 in the world.  This victory is up there with LeBron James’ performance in the 2016 NBA finals and Tiger Woods’ 2008 US open victory in 91 holes while playing with a hairline fracture in his leg and torn ligaments in his knee. 

How did Federer do it?  First of all, as Roger continued to do what he has done over their last few matches – taking shots to his backhand on the rise before Nadal’s awesome topspin could make the ball climb up on him.  To execute such a backhand requires unreal timing and hand-eye coordination, and Federer has those skills at a level never before seen in tennis.  Second, this match was played on a fast hard court, which allowed Federer, by taking balls early, to rob Nadal of time.  Nadal plays a bit like Dominic Thiem in that he hits the ball much better when he is able to set is feet and gather himself for the shot.  He is a better “wrist” player than Thiem, but Federer is the best of all time at wristing the ball.  Third, Federer was calm and cool throughout.  It must be understood that Federer is a very emotional player.  Witness the numerous times he has shed tears after matches, even when he won.  Earlier in their careers, when Roger was trying to figure out how to deal with Rafa’s topspin, I believe he made nervous shots on key points.  If you go back over their matches, it is startling how many break points Federer had that he was unable to convert.  In this match, Federer’s maturity and realistic expectations allowed him to remain on an even keel and deal with adversity quite well. 

What ever else happens in 2017, this Australian Open has sent three important messages:

1) Federer is a tennis “natural” like no one has ever seen.

2) Nadal is back.  Rafa played some really outstanding tennis in this tournament, and he will pose a serious threat to Novak and Andy Murray, particularly in the clay court swing.

3) Dimitrov has arrived.  Grigor Dimitrov put on a performance in the semis that was truly remarkable, with an amazing display of physical skills and psychological fortitude.  He will be a force for the very top players to reckon with.

Overall this was a very interesting tournament, with the older players showing that they can still dominate the youngsters.  A provocative and stimulating start to the 2017 grand slam season.