Australian Open Finals are Set

The women:  An up and down match between Kerber and Halep ended with a win by Halep.  It was hard to tell if Kerber was nervous or simply off her game, but she gave away the first set with some spotty play.  Halep did her usual thing, but played a bit more aggressively than usual and kept her emotions enough in check to win.  Wozniaki beat first time semifinalist Mertens in the second match.  Wozniaki dominated but blinked when serving for the match at 5-4 in the second set.  She recovered admirably in the tiebreak though, and dominated it to win in straights.  It will be difficult to predict the outcome of the final.  Wozniaki has a good record against Halep, but Halep has been playing better tennis up to now.   Halep must suppress memories of her finals loss to Ostapenko in last year’s French Open.

My pick:  Halep in straight sets.

The men:  Kyle Edmund hits the ball very hard, but one cannot do that consistently unless one has time to set up for shots.  Cilic denied him that opportunity with his hard, flat hitting.  Edmund had great tournament with a highlight win over Dimitrov, b3ut this match was no contest.  Federer then played Hyeon Chung, who has stunned the tennis community with big wins over Sasha Zverev and Djokovic.  Adding another win against Federer is asking a lot.  After losing the first set 6-1 in about 30 minutes, Chung retired early in the second set with a blister.  Federer was gracious as usual, pointing out how painful a blister can be.   But let’s face it – blisters hurt a lot more when you’re getting totally embarrassed on the world stage by Federer.  Cilic can speak to that from last year’s Wimbledon final, where he also sought treatment for a blister while being destroyed by Federer.  Cilic now has a chance to redeem himself in the Aussie final this year.  He showed good fight and composure against Nadal, who retired in the 5^th with a muscle strain, but he will be playing Federer on a surface that is much more to the liking of Roger than Rafa.

My Pick: Federer in 4

Australian Open update

Keys is clocked.  Angelique Kerber decimated Madison Keys in their quarterfinal match.  Kerber was very sharp, but Keys rushed her service games and made many uncharacteristic unforced errors.  Her play was similar to her loss in the US Open final, which suggests to me that she has an issue with nerves in high pressure matches.

Halep dispatches Pliskova.  Karolina Pliskova, a player a great serve and terrific hands at the net, once again had her poor footwork and court coverage exposed by Simona Halep, who won comfortably.  A Kerber/Halep semi looms, and that should be epic.  On the other side, Caroline Wozniaki continues to move methodically and quietly through the draw.  She will face Elise Mertens, a 22 year old surprise winner over Elina Svitolina.  I pick Caroline to reach the final. 

Nadal out.  After a hard fought 4 ½ sets against Marin Cilic, Rafa Nadal retired with what appeared to be a strain of the psoas major muscle, the action of which is to flex the hip.  After the match Nadal complained that the tour doesn’t sufficiently protect players’ health, by which he means that there should be more clay court tournaments.  Imagine how Roger Federer, the greatest grass player ever, feels about that, when there are many more clay than grass tournaments already.  Cilic will now play Kyle Edmond of Great Britain.  That could be interesting.

Chung presses on.  Hyeon Chung of Korea dominated Tennys Sandgren in their quarterfinal.  This guy looks like the real deal.  He gets Federer next.  Roger beat Tomas Berdych yet again, in straight sets yet again.  Roger got off to a slow start in the Berdych match, which I believe relates to his age.  Were I his coach, I’d tell Roger to elect to receive more often when he wins the toss.  He can then get loose in the first game, and he is still on serve if he loses it.  It’s hard to predict how the Chung/Federer match will go.  Chung is on a hot streak, he beat Djokovic in straights, and he has nothing to lose.  Of course the money has to be on Roger, whose smorgasbord of skills must be very hard to deal with when seen for the first time.  Once possible weakness in Chung’s game is that he gets very few free points on serve.  It’s hard to win consistently without getting some easy service games. 

Australian Open

Epic battles

Simona Halep took out Lauren Davis 15-13 in the third set of their third round match.  Davis lost a toenail during the match but played on, and Halep played through cramps in the third to finally win.  Both players showed true grit, and the play after 6-6 in the third is worth watching.

Grigor Dimitrov defeated Nick Kyrgios in a 4-setter with 3 tiebreaks.  A very intense match with a lot of power serving and great shot making.  Kyrgios remained relatively stable emotionally throughout this highly charged encounter, which bodes well for him the rest of the year.  His shot selection is still a bit questionable, with a lot of over-hitting.  Dimitrov is really coming into his own.  Dimitrov will play Kyle Edmund next.  Edmund has a much bigger forehand than most people realize.

Other news

Djokovic cruised thus far and will play Chung of Korea in the next round.  Watch out for Chung, who mixed power with speed and finesse beautifully in taking out Sasha Zverev.

Nadal lost a set to Diego Schwartzman, a game but diminutive foe.  He will play Cilic next.  This is a good surface for Cilic, so this match might get interesting.

Federer next plays 80^th ranked Marton Fucsovics of Hungary.  It must be interesting to play a man as many tools as Federer for the first time.  Don’t expect Marton to win.

Australian Open early results

Disappointing preformances:

John Isner Looked sluggish and listless in losing to Matt Ebden

Jack Sock.  Is he out of shape?  Lost to Yuichi Sugita

Sloane Stephens.  Why can’t she sustain her intensity?  Won the first set but then lost to Zhang Shuai.

Garbine Muguruza.  Some injury problems?  Had a weak serve and played not to lose, in losing to Su-Wei Hsieh.

Milos Raonic.  Not quite as disappointing as the others, as he is back from a very long injury-related layoff.  Serve and net play great, but movement very sluggish as he lost to Lacko.

Comeback performers.

Novak Djokovic.  Despite the altered service motion, has survived two rounds, including a win over Gael Monfils, who suffered in the heat.

Stan Wawrinka.  Back from knee problems, lost to Tennys Sandgren, ranked 97.

Close calls

Grigor Dimitrov survived an 8-6 in the fifth showdown with Mackenzie McDonald of the US (ranked 178) and then went on to beat Andrey Rublev in a tough 4-setter.  Rublev looks like an outstanding prospect, like Shapovalov.

Wozniaki came from 1-5 down in the third set to defeat Jana Fett, ranked 119.

Power tennis:  If you like to see power tennis on a fast court, watch a replay of the Kyrgios-Tsonga match, won by Kyrgios in 4 sets.

Federer and Nadal cruising.  Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal have been winning easily.  Rafa has had a favorable draw.  He will not face a true challenge until he sees either Dimitrov or Kyrgios, and they must play each other before getting to him.  So things look good for Nadal.  Federer will face Berdych or Fognini, then Thiem or Djokovic.  A Federer-Djokovic match would be very interesting. 

Zverev out.  Sasha Zverev, considered a possible winner, went out to Hyeon Chung, ranked 59, in 5 sets.  Zverev lost the last set 6-0, which suggests effects of hot weather.  Too bad the men don’t get a weather break after 2 sets!

Australian Open outlook

The men:

Nishikori is out – wrist injury

Murray is out – hip injury

Wawrinka - will play but is recovering from knee surgery

Djokovic – will play but has an elbow injury that may require surgery

Nadal – questionable due to right knee injury

With this list of maladies, the draw is far more open than usual, as was the case late last year.

Players to watch are:

Roger Federer – the defending champ who has looked pretty fit in warmup season.

Sasha Zverev  Lost to Federer at the Hopman cup, but that is an exhibition.  He looked strong though, with an improved serve.

Grigor Dimitrov.  Lost to Nick Kyrgios in the Brisbane final but played outstanding tennis, a continuation of his strong play late last year.

Nick Kyrgios.  Remained fairly calm on his way to winning in Brisbane, and displayed his awesome talents convincingly.  He is playing at home as well.  His problem: he is prone to aberrant, self-defeating behavior when the pressure is on, and he may feel exceptional pressure deep in a major with home fans watching.

Also keep an eye on:

Dominic Thiem, who plays well in the early months every year.

Juan Martin del Potro.  Lost in the final in Auckland to Bautista Agut, but has top 5 ability and has played very well for several months.

My top 3:  Federer, Dimitrov, Kyrgios

The women:

Serena Williams – out recovering from delivery of her baby.

Victoria Azarenka - out due to custody suit involving her baby.

The remaining draw is quite interesting, with many players having a chance to win.  Simona Halep is number 1 in the world and this could be her breakthrough.  Angie Kerber is playing strong tennis again after a dismal 2017.  She won the Sydney warmup, beating Venus Williams, Cibulkova, Safarova and Giorgi on the way to the title.   Garbine Muguruza has had injury issues early this year, but her compelling talents can’t be overlooked.  Sloane Stephens has proven that she can win a major.  Consistency is her issue.  Wozniaki has steadily improved over the past half year, and is indefatigable, which could be a factor in the Melbourne summer heat.  Karolina Pliskova has the weapons, and Venus Williams continues to play some of the best tennis of her career.  Other powerful players include Madison Keys, Coco Vandeweigh and Jelena Ostapenko, who won the French last year.  In sum, this is an open draw with a lot of intriguing matchups to look forward to.

Also keep an eye on:

Maria Sharapova.  Back from suspension, a bit rusty, but the consummate competitor and multiple grand slam champ.

Petra Kvitova.  Definitely has the game.  Her health will be watched closely despite her apparent recovery from a knife attack that put her off the tour for the first half of 2017.

My top 3:  Halep, Kerber, Wozniaki