Australian Open update

Keys is clocked.  Angelique Kerber decimated Madison Keys in their quarterfinal match.  Kerber was very sharp, but Keys rushed her service games and made many uncharacteristic unforced errors.  Her play was similar to her loss in the US Open final, which suggests to me that she has an issue with nerves in high pressure matches.

Halep dispatches Pliskova.  Karolina Pliskova, a player a great serve and terrific hands at the net, once again had her poor footwork and court coverage exposed by Simona Halep, who won comfortably.  A Kerber/Halep semi looms, and that should be epic.  On the other side, Caroline Wozniaki continues to move methodically and quietly through the draw.  She will face Elise Mertens, a 22 year old surprise winner over Elina Svitolina.  I pick Caroline to reach the final. 

Nadal out.  After a hard fought 4 ½ sets against Marin Cilic, Rafa Nadal retired with what appeared to be a strain of the psoas major muscle, the action of which is to flex the hip.  After the match Nadal complained that the tour doesn’t sufficiently protect players’ health, by which he means that there should be more clay court tournaments.  Imagine how Roger Federer, the greatest grass player ever, feels about that, when there are many more clay than grass tournaments already.  Cilic will now play Kyle Edmond of Great Britain.  That could be interesting.

Chung presses on.  Hyeon Chung of Korea dominated Tennys Sandgren in their quarterfinal.  This guy looks like the real deal.  He gets Federer next.  Roger beat Tomas Berdych yet again, in straight sets yet again.  Roger got off to a slow start in the Berdych match, which I believe relates to his age.  Were I his coach, I’d tell Roger to elect to receive more often when he wins the toss.  He can then get loose in the first game, and he is still on serve if he loses it.  It’s hard to predict how the Chung/Federer match will go.  Chung is on a hot streak, he beat Djokovic in straights, and he has nothing to lose.  Of course the money has to be on Roger, whose smorgasbord of skills must be very hard to deal with when seen for the first time.  Once possible weakness in Chung’s game is that he gets very few free points on serve.  It’s hard to win consistently without getting some easy service games. 

Australian Open

Epic battles

Simona Halep took out Lauren Davis 15-13 in the third set of their third round match.  Davis lost a toenail during the match but played on, and Halep played through cramps in the third to finally win.  Both players showed true grit, and the play after 6-6 in the third is worth watching.

Grigor Dimitrov defeated Nick Kyrgios in a 4-setter with 3 tiebreaks.  A very intense match with a lot of power serving and great shot making.  Kyrgios remained relatively stable emotionally throughout this highly charged encounter, which bodes well for him the rest of the year.  His shot selection is still a bit questionable, with a lot of over-hitting.  Dimitrov is really coming into his own.  Dimitrov will play Kyle Edmund next.  Edmund has a much bigger forehand than most people realize.

Other news

Djokovic cruised thus far and will play Chung of Korea in the next round.  Watch out for Chung, who mixed power with speed and finesse beautifully in taking out Sasha Zverev.

Nadal lost a set to Diego Schwartzman, a game but diminutive foe.  He will play Cilic next.  This is a good surface for Cilic, so this match might get interesting.

Federer next plays 80^th ranked Marton Fucsovics of Hungary.  It must be interesting to play a man as many tools as Federer for the first time.  Don’t expect Marton to win.

Australian Open early results

Disappointing preformances:

John Isner Looked sluggish and listless in losing to Matt Ebden

Jack Sock.  Is he out of shape?  Lost to Yuichi Sugita

Sloane Stephens.  Why can’t she sustain her intensity?  Won the first set but then lost to Zhang Shuai.

Garbine Muguruza.  Some injury problems?  Had a weak serve and played not to lose, in losing to Su-Wei Hsieh.

Milos Raonic.  Not quite as disappointing as the others, as he is back from a very long injury-related layoff.  Serve and net play great, but movement very sluggish as he lost to Lacko.

Comeback performers.

Novak Djokovic.  Despite the altered service motion, has survived two rounds, including a win over Gael Monfils, who suffered in the heat.

Stan Wawrinka.  Back from knee problems, lost to Tennys Sandgren, ranked 97.

Close calls

Grigor Dimitrov survived an 8-6 in the fifth showdown with Mackenzie McDonald of the US (ranked 178) and then went on to beat Andrey Rublev in a tough 4-setter.  Rublev looks like an outstanding prospect, like Shapovalov.

Wozniaki came from 1-5 down in the third set to defeat Jana Fett, ranked 119.

Power tennis:  If you like to see power tennis on a fast court, watch a replay of the Kyrgios-Tsonga match, won by Kyrgios in 4 sets.

Federer and Nadal cruising.  Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal have been winning easily.  Rafa has had a favorable draw.  He will not face a true challenge until he sees either Dimitrov or Kyrgios, and they must play each other before getting to him.  So things look good for Nadal.  Federer will face Berdych or Fognini, then Thiem or Djokovic.  A Federer-Djokovic match would be very interesting. 

Zverev out.  Sasha Zverev, considered a possible winner, went out to Hyeon Chung, ranked 59, in 5 sets.  Zverev lost the last set 6-0, which suggests effects of hot weather.  Too bad the men don’t get a weather break after 2 sets!

Australian Open outlook

The men:

Nishikori is out – wrist injury

Murray is out – hip injury

Wawrinka - will play but is recovering from knee surgery

Djokovic – will play but has an elbow injury that may require surgery

Nadal – questionable due to right knee injury

With this list of maladies, the draw is far more open than usual, as was the case late last year.

Players to watch are:

Roger Federer – the defending champ who has looked pretty fit in warmup season.

Sasha Zverev  Lost to Federer at the Hopman cup, but that is an exhibition.  He looked strong though, with an improved serve.

Grigor Dimitrov.  Lost to Nick Kyrgios in the Brisbane final but played outstanding tennis, a continuation of his strong play late last year.

Nick Kyrgios.  Remained fairly calm on his way to winning in Brisbane, and displayed his awesome talents convincingly.  He is playing at home as well.  His problem: he is prone to aberrant, self-defeating behavior when the pressure is on, and he may feel exceptional pressure deep in a major with home fans watching.

Also keep an eye on:

Dominic Thiem, who plays well in the early months every year.

Juan Martin del Potro.  Lost in the final in Auckland to Bautista Agut, but has top 5 ability and has played very well for several months.

My top 3:  Federer, Dimitrov, Kyrgios

The women:

Serena Williams – out recovering from delivery of her baby.

Victoria Azarenka - out due to custody suit involving her baby.

The remaining draw is quite interesting, with many players having a chance to win.  Simona Halep is number 1 in the world and this could be her breakthrough.  Angie Kerber is playing strong tennis again after a dismal 2017.  She won the Sydney warmup, beating Venus Williams, Cibulkova, Safarova and Giorgi on the way to the title.   Garbine Muguruza has had injury issues early this year, but her compelling talents can’t be overlooked.  Sloane Stephens has proven that she can win a major.  Consistency is her issue.  Wozniaki has steadily improved over the past half year, and is indefatigable, which could be a factor in the Melbourne summer heat.  Karolina Pliskova has the weapons, and Venus Williams continues to play some of the best tennis of her career.  Other powerful players include Madison Keys, Coco Vandeweigh and Jelena Ostapenko, who won the French last year.  In sum, this is an open draw with a lot of intriguing matchups to look forward to.

Also keep an eye on:

Maria Sharapova.  Back from suspension, a bit rusty, but the consummate competitor and multiple grand slam champ.

Petra Kvitova.  Definitely has the game.  Her health will be watched closely despite her apparent recovery from a knife attack that put her off the tour for the first half of 2017.

My top 3:  Halep, Kerber, Wozniaki

ATP  Year end championships and 2018 outlook.

The year-end championships were a bit anticlimactic, with Nadal bowing out in the round robin due to injury, Wawrinka, Nishikori, Djokovic and Murray all absent, and Federer playing a little bit too relaxed, with the off season in sight.  David Goffin defeated the damaged Nadal, lost badly to Grigor Dimitrov, and then beat Federer in the semifinals after losing the first set 6-2.  As noted, Fed looked a little bit too relaxed as he started missing forehands and seemingly finding himself unable to give that extra push to win that match.  This year was a long and grueling one for Roger, though Goffin deserves a lot of credit for staying the course.  In the final Dimitrov again defeated Goffin, though the match was close.  Kudos to Dimitrov, who played some great tennis late in the year, and who showed off his many talents and physical skills on his way to the title.

Year end Awards:

Player of the year, Rafa Nadal.  Nadal had a great year, with 2 major titles, including his record 10^th at the French Open.  I actually think Federer had a better year, but they had to give some awards to someone else, as illustrated below.

Comeback player of the year, Roger Federer.  Roger missed the second half of 2016, then came back to win 2 majors, including a record 8^th Wimbledon, and 3 masters 1000 events.  He also beat Nadal in several big matches, including the final of the Aussie Open.  An amazing year.

Sportsmanship Award, Roger Federer.  This was the 13^th time Roger has won this award.  When he retires the award should be renamed the Edberg/Federer sportsmanship award.

Fan favorite, Roger Federer.  For the 15^th straight year.  Again, again.

Most improved player, Denis Shapovalov.  Denis moved into the top 100 from far down in the ranks, and beat Nadal in a third set tiebreaker in Montreal.  This award could have gone to Sasha Zverev, who won two masters 1000 events.

ATP star of tomorrow, Denis Shapovalov.  No controversy on this one, though I believe Denis will see a bit of a sophomore slump as top players figure out his vulnerabilities and more of the best players are playing.

Humanitarian award, Horia Tecau of Romania.

2018 outlook:

With Murray, Djokovic, Nishikori and Wawrinka coming back, and with Nadal presumably healthy, the younger guns in the top 10 (Zverev, Dimitrov) will have a hard time holding onto their rankings.  Dimitrov should fare better, as his deep runs in many tournaments late in 2017 helped him learn to deal with high pressure situations, which has been a challenge for him in the past.  The win at the year end championships should give him a lot of confidence, and we should expect some great matches between him and the traditional “big 4” next year.  Roger Federer should also have quite a challenge holding his ranking, as he now has so many ranking points to defend.  With Roger, though, it’s about time we gave up making predictions.   Players deserving a closer look include del Potro, who showed some top level 5 play late in 2017, and Nick Kyrgios, whose only weakness is between the ears.  Shapovalov and Tiafoe are youngsters worth keeping an eye on.  I predict relatively tough years for the fading Ferrer and Berdych, and for Wawrinka as well.  Let’s hope all of the top players stay healthy!