US Open Happenings

Significant events at the Open after completion of the early rounds include:

The men:

Novak gets a free ride.  Novak was handed two free rounds when Jiri Vesely gave him a walkover and Mikhail Youzhny retired from the next match.  Djokovic will be rested, but will have to produce better tennis than in his first round match in order to win the tournament.  Next up for him will be Kyle Edmund of Great Britain, who’s had a good tournament.  Gotta pick Novak in this one.

Dimitrov continues to win.  Grigor Dimitrov, a player I tagged to “keep and eye on”, is still in the tournament after taking a 5-setter from Jeremy Chardy and a 4- setter from Joao Sousa.  Is he finally getting his game together?  Next up for him will be Andy Murray, my pick to win it all.  Let’s see what Grigor can do though.

Thiem vs del Potro next.  Afer winning a fabulous match against Pablo Carreno Busta, in which he hit some frighteningly good backhands, Dominic Thiem will face Juan Martin del Potro, who bested a fading David Ferrer.  It’s so good to see del Potro playing well!  This is the best match on the docket.

Sock continues:  After a terrific win against Marin Cilic, Jack Sock will go up against J.W. Tsonga.  This should be a good one too.  Sock’s prodigious talents are showing in this tournament.

Nadal continues.  It’s hard to know what to expect from Rafa these days, but he’s still in, and will face Lucas Pouille next.  It will be interesting to see what happens if Nadal and Djokovic meet in the semis.

The women

Keys survives no-nos against Osaka.  In a previous post I listed as one of the no-nos: don’t fail to get your opponent’s second serves in play when you’re down a break.  Keys did just that in the second set against Naomi Osaka, who was serving for that set at 5-4, 30-30.  On the next two points Osaka missed her first serves, but Keys failed to get the second serves in play and lost the set.  In the third set, when down 5-1, Keys suddenly seemed to realize the importance of making your opponent play when in the lead, and she started getting into more rallies on Osaka’s serve.  In the end, she pulled it out in a third set tiebreaker.  What a dramatic match!  She next plays Caroline Wozniaki, one of the world’s best defenders.  If she wants to win that she’ll have to keep the errors down.

Pliskova vs. V. Williams.  I tagged Venus as a player to keep an eye on in this tournament, and she’s still in.  I tagged Karolina Pliskova as having an outside shot to win it all, and she’s in.  They play each other next.  Venus is a much better mover, but Pliskova hits even harder than Venus.  It should be interesting.

Konta continues.  I hadn’t flagged Konta as someone deserving of special attention prior to the start of the tournament, this despite her great year.  My reluctance was based on her tendency to not go all the way in tournaments just yet.  However, she’s still around, and is a very solid player both mentally with her game.  She next gets Sevastova, who’s making good on her victory over Muguruza.  I think Konta will win that too, and find herself oin the quarters of a major, where she will face either Keys or Wozniaki.

Battle of lefties.  A terrific match on the docket is Kerber vs Kvitova, the “special K’s”

of lefty tennis.  This could be a good one if Petra produces her best tennis.

Big match brewing.  Serena Williams has had a straightforward draw up until now, but if she gets past Yaroslava Shvedova next, which she should do, she could well face Simona Halep, whom I favor to beat Carla Suarez-Navarro.  Halep is playing great tennis and has beaten Serena on the big stage in the past.  This would be a big match for Serena, who seeks her 23d slam win.

Climate change and professional tennis

Climate change is not a sports issue in and of itself, but this year’s US Open results are being affected by this phenomenon. 

Climate change background. 

With the beginning of the industrial revolution, human activity began pouring green house gases, mainly carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.  The risk that these gases would warm the planet was recognized as far back as the 1890’s, and official reports of warming first appeared in the 1930’s.  With the advent of industrial farming and development of the chemical industry, methane and chlorofluorcarbons, both of which are far more efficient heat trappers than carbon dioxide, were spilled into the atmosphere in ever increasing amounts.  Methane comes mainly from industrial farming, and chlorofluorocarbons are synthesized for use as refrigerants and propellants in aerosol sprays.   As a consequence of green house gas emissions, the planet has been warming rapidly.  This year NASA reported that the rate of warming today is faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.  The bottom line here is that we have already done catastrophic damage to the global environment, and we are just beginning to feel effects that will further evolve over the next few decades.  Of course, green house gas emissions continue to increase.  The Paris climate change accords will lead to some abatement of this increase but will not be enough to forestall a global environmental crisis that is close upon us. 

Climate change and sports

Climate change has been affecting organized sports for quite a long time.  In 1982 the New York Marathon date was moved from October to November because of excessively warm weather in 1981.  In 1992, the WTA instituted a “Heat rule” that allowed a 10 minute rest period between the second and third sets of matches if the temperature exceeded 30 degrees centigrade.   In 2012 the New York Marathon was canceled because of the effects of Sandy, a late season hurricane that decimated the New York area with flooding.  Such extreme weather cannot be proved to be due to climate change, but there is ample reason to be suspicious. 

At this year’s US Open, several players have suffered significantly from the heat.  Garbine Muguruza nearly lost her first round match until she was rescued by ice towels around the neck.  David Goffin lost a final set to 122-ranked Jared Donaldson by 6-0, apparently because of “fatigue”.  Donaldson also suffered from cramps in the match.  Milos Raonic, one of the favorites, succumbed to severe cramping against Ryan Harrison and is out of the tournament.  Cramps in his right arm and legs lowered his serve speed to under 80 mph.  In some cases this year, matches have been more a test of players’ ability to tolerate heat and humidity than a test of tennis skills.  It is naïve to think that players who retire from the heat simply aren’t in good shape.  No two people have exactly the same physiology, and heat tolerance can be as much a function of chance as conditioning.

Whether or not the impact of heat and humidity on matches is acceptable to fans, there are some serious implications of this situation.  Exertion can lead to an inability to cope with rises in core body temperature.  If severe enough, heat stroke may occur, and this condition can be associated with end organ damage, including brain damage, or even death.  We don’t want to see players injured or killed by heat stroke, so this possibility should be considered carefully.  In the Citi Open earlier this year in Washington DC, the court temperature in the final was measured at 141 degrees Farenheit.   Nobody collapsed or died, but should that match have been played under those conditions?  Another concern is for the fans.  Players are young and generally healthy, but fans sitting in the stands may be older and affected by medical conditions that could compromise heat tolerance.  It would not be a good thing if a fan was overcome by heat and suffered severe injury or death. 

             The WTA heat rule demonstrates concern on the part of organized tennis that excessive heat can threaten the health of players.  In my opinion this concern should be heightened and extended to men’s matches.  I also think tournaments that are held in summertime should develop aggressive programs for alerting fans to the potential risks of heat related illness, and advising them on prevention and early treatment.

US Open Happenings

Here are some of the highlights from early round US Open play.

Djokovic wins, but…

            Novak beat Jersey Janowicz, the 6-8 Polish player who has a world of talent, but hasn’t won an important match in quite a long time.  But… - Djokovic did look very good.  He dropped a set, played poorly, and looked physically uncomfortable.  Djokovic got a free pass through the second round when Jiri Vesely, who beat him earlier this year on clay, withdrew.  Djokovic fans should watch him closely as things progress, because he didn’t play title tennis in the first round.

Bouchard loses, but…

            Eugenie Bouchard lost her first round match to 72- ranked Katerina Sinikova by 6-2 in the third set.  This may seem like a terrible loss, but… Bouchard fans should actually feel some encouragement from this one.  Not only did Siniakova play a very good match, but Bouchard played hard until the last point.  In some matches earlier this year Bouchard collapsed emotionally and simply hit balls out to get the match over with as quickly as possible.  Not as bad a loss here as it looks on paper.

Donaldson the giant killer

            Jared Donaldson, a 19-year-old American ranked 122, defeated David Goffin by 6-0 in the fourth set.  The diminutive Goffin has flirted with the top 10 in rankings during this year, apparently succumbed to heat-related fatigue.  Donaldson also began cramping late in the match but pulled through.

Harrison the giant killer. 

Ryan Harrison, playing the best tennis I’ve ever seen from him, took Milos Raonic out of the US Open in a huge upset.  The real winner in this match was the oppressive weather, which caused Raonic to cramp in his right arm and both thighs.  Late in the match, Raonic, who has one of the biggest serves in tennis, hit a serve at 78 mph!   Credit to Raonic for not retiring. 

Muguruza loses. 

After successfully dealing with severe heat and humidity in the first round, Garbine Muguruza lost a night match in the second round to Anastasija Sevastova, ranked 48.  Muguruza has a pattern of going away in matches, and that occurred here, where she gave up a first set lead, got down 4-0 in the second set, then got broken to lose 6-4 in the second.  It’s not clear what Muguruza’s career ambitions are, but if she wants to become a legendary player she will have to address this problem.  She will be missed not only for her great play, but for her post match press conferences.  She gave one of the most delightful conferences I’ve ever seen after the first round.

A spirited match

            In one of the better matches thus far on the women’s side, Caroline Wozniaki rebounded from a 0-4 start in the first set to defeat Svetlana Kuznetsova.  Wozniaki, whose ranking has suffered from injury-related interruptions of play and from issues with confidence, did something that I’ve always felt she must do to break through in a slam: she flattened out her inside-out forehand and penetrated the court with it far better than in the past.  Historically she has used the forehand to keep rallies going with cross court topspin shots, and has ended points with her backhand.  Players got on to this pattern, timed that forehand, and began pummeling it to take over rallies.  Wozniaki is often maligned for not winning a major, but it’s worth keeping in mind that she finished at #1 in the world for two consecutive years, and that she is still only 26 years old.  She is also one of the four best defenders in women’s tennis, the other three being Radwanska, Halep and Kerber.  A good win here.

US Open Overview

The draw is now out for the US open.  Here are some noteworthy findings:

The women:

Favorites

1) Serena Williams

2) Angelique Kerber

3) Garbine Muguruza

4) Aggie Radwanska

Serena is the obvious favorite, despite an apparent shoulder problem that kept her out of the Cincinnati tournament.  Don’t expect her shoulder to hamper her in this tournament.  She has a tricky first round match with Ekaterina Makarova, a seasoned veteran who knows how to play in big tournaments and who defeated Williams in the Australian Open in 2012.  If she gets through that one, Serena probably face Halep in the quarterfinals.  Halep is playing good tennis right now and also claims some significant wins over Serena in the past.  Angie Kerber, the #2 seed, has a bit of an easier draw.  If all goes according to script, she would play Muguruza in the semis, but has a fairly smooth ride before that.   Muguruza obviously has the ability to go all the way, though she sometimes appears a bit too comfortable with losses.  She has Madison Keys in her quarter, so that could be a tough match and a good match.  I pick Radwanska above Halep because Halep is in Serena’s quarter.

They have a chance:

1) Simona Halep

2) Madison Keys

3) Petra Kvitova

4) Karolina Pliskova

Halep is a great player and is playing quite well this summer.  She probably would have to beat Serena Williams to go all the way, but she’s done it before.  Madison Keys has an awesome power game that has really rounded into form this year.  She still has a way to go to reach her full potential, but is a very dangerous player.  Both Kvitova and Pliskova are long shots but have a chance.  The enigmatic Kvitova, who looked awesome in her two Wimbledon wins, is quite erratic and frankly, disappointing.  Pliskova has a great serve that gets her a lot of free points, and powerful groundies as well.  She is not a great mover and has succumbed to pressure in the past, but her win over Kerber in Cincinnati indicates that she might be putting it all together. 

Players to keep an eye on:

1) Laura Robson, Radwanska’s quarter, top half.  Has she finally overcome her injuries?

2) Eugenie Bouchard, Radwanska’s quarter, top half.  Has she finally exorcised her demons?  A great talent but…

3) Venus Williams, Radwanska’s quarter.  She is seeded 6^th.  It will be interesting to see what kind of tennis she can produce at this late stage of her career.

4) Svetlana Kuznetsova, Muguruza’s quarter, bottom half.  She’s won a couple of slams and has had a pretty good year.  She could be a spoiler.

5) Monica Puig, Muguruza’s quarter.  She won Olympic gold.  Is that a springboard to greatness for her?

6) Ceci Bellis, Kerber’s quarter, bottom half.  Haven’t heard much from the young phenom in awhile.  Let’s see where she’s at.

7) Elina Svitolina, Kerber’s quarter.  Beat Serena in the Olympics and almost won the New Haven warmup, though she tweaked her right ankle in the final.  Looking good these days with Justine Henin’s tutelage. 

Interesting first round matches:

1) Gavrilova vs Safarova, top half.  The feisty Gavrilova plays Safarova, a terrific player when healthy and match tough.  Could be a good one.

2) Giorgi vs Stosur, top half.  It’s all or nothing at all with Camila Giorgi, who faces a former champ.  Will Giorgi’s dad be giving her signals from the player’s box?

3) Townsend vs Wozniaki,  Muguruza’s quarter.  Townsend can really hit the ball and moves a lot better than you would think from her physical appearance.  Wozniaki, a former world #1, is really vulnerable these days.  Could be interesting.

4) Ostapenko vs Kvitova, Kerber’s quarter.  Ostapenko is very talented a motivated.  If Kvitova doesn’t show up this could be a big upset.

 Can’t help missing Maria Sharapova just a little!

US Open Overview

The draw is now out for the US open.  Here are some noteworthy findings:

The men:

Favorites

1) Andy Murray

2) Novak Djokovic

3) Milos Raonic

4) Marin Cilic

At the moment I’d put Andy Murray just a little bit ahead of Novak as the favorite for this tournament.  Not only is he playing the best tennis in the world right now, but the only man to beat him recently, Marin Cilic, must beat Djokovic to get to Andy.  Djokovic, still the best player in the world, has had some ups and downs recently, but overall he must be high on the list of favorites.  Raonic has been dominated by Murray lately, but he’s always learning, always reaches the late rounds of tournaments, and is not in Murray’s half of the draw.  He’s had little success against Djokovic either, though, so his chances are so-so if Novak faces and beats Marin Cilic.  Cilic plays really well at this time of year, he beat Murray in Cincinnati, and he’s won this tournament before.  He’ll have to get past Novak and probably Raonic to reach the final.

They have a chance:

1) Stan Wawrinka

2) Rafael Nadal

3) Kei Nishikori

2) Dominic Thiem

4) Gael Monfils

5) Nick Kyrgios

Stan Wawrinka, while up and down psychologically, is still a 2-time slam winner and a very powerful player.  I’m not yet ready to dismiss Nadal, he’s such a great player.  He hasn’t looked all that good lately, though.  Kei Nishikori has made the final before, and is a truly great player.  Will he hold up physically is the question.  Dominic Thiem had a fabulous early part of 2016 but has flagged a bit lately.  He’s a real professional with a world of talent, however, so he has a chance.  Gael Monfils has the ability to win but hasn’t played his top tennis for seven straight matches at any previous time in his career.  He’s a much more serious player than he used to be, so I give him a shot.  Kyrgios is a long shot but has wonderful tools.  He’s gotten a bit more serious about his tennis over the past several months, so who knows?  Another player who’s gotten more serious is Kyrgios’ countryman, Bernie Tomic.  Those two might face off in the third round, which would be interesting.

Players to keep an eye on:

1) David Goffin          Murray’s half

2) Stevie Johnson                  Murray’s half

3) Alexander Zverev             Murray’s half

4) Grigor Dimitrov                Murray’s half

5) John Isner                         Djokovic’s half

6) Jack Sock                           Djokovic’s half

Interesting first round matches:

1) Wawrinka vs. Verdasco.  If Verdasco plays his best, could be a tough one for Stan.

2) Nadal vs Istomin.  Nadal should win comfortably, but this will be a chance to check out how he’s playing.

3) Dustin Brown vs. Milos Raonic.  Expect Raonic to win, but Brown is a ton of fun to watch!

4) Jack Sock Vs. Taylor Fritz.  Two terrific young Americans going at it.